PETDAG / 5681 - 2010 Q3

My TP: 8.29+0.48 = 8.77 (PE 11, EPS 0.754, DPS 0.48)
My decison: NOT BUY
Reason: Market trend unstable

My study based on 2010 Q3 report (number in '000):
- ROE compare to last Q decreased 0.34% to 4.23% but higher than last year 3.18%
- Revenue compare to last Q growth 3.61% to 5337713 but profit drop 6.01% to 187245, mainly due to higher average product selling prices, higher sales volume and lower gross profit; As compare to last year revenue drop 4.02% but profit growth 340.88%, mainly due to lower average product selling prices and higher product gross profit
- Equity compare to last Q increased 1.75% to 4431593, assets decreased 3.6% to 7195074 and liabilities also decreased 11.09% to 2763481; As compare to last year equity increased 8.82%, assets decreased 1.83% and liabilities also decreased 15.97%

- Minority interest compare to last Q increased 2.67% to 34153 but lower than last year 31.41%
- Got FCF 858393, NCF 481668
- Profit margin compare to last Q decreased 0.36% to 3.51% but higher than last year 2.75%
- DE compare to last Q decreased 0.0901 to 0.6236 but compare to last year decreased 0.1903
- No dividend declared
- My estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q3 result announced = 0.1885*4 = 0.754, estimate PE on current price 8.58 = 10.74 (DPS 0.48)

- From date 2009-11-24 to 2010-02-19 after 2010 Q2 result announced, highest price on 2009-11-24 was 9.03 and lowest price on 2010-02-08 was 8.55. Estimate next 4Q eps = 0.2005*4 = 0.802, estimate highest/lowest PE = 10.66/10.06 (DPS 0.48)
- From date 2009-08-26 to 2009-11-23 after 2010 Q1 result announced, highest price on 2009-10-19 was 9.15 and lowest price on 2009-09-28 was 8.43. Estimate next 4Q eps = 0.2067*4 = 0.8268, estimate highest/lowest PE = 10.52/9.65 (DPS 0.45)
- From date 2009-05-26 to 2009-08-25 after 2009 Q4 result announced, highest price on 2009-08-24 was 8.67 and lowest price on 2009-05-26 was 7.9. Estimate next 4Q eps = 0.1735*4 = 0.694, estimate highest/lowest PE = 11.84/10.73 (DPS 0.45)
- From date 2009-02-25 to 2009-05-25 after 2009 Q3 result announced, highest price on 2009-04-16 was 8 and lowest price on 2009-03-18 was 7.35. Estimate next 4Q eps = 0.0428*4 = 0.1712, estimate highest/lowest PE = 44.1/40.3 (DPS 0.45)
- Divident in sen 2010 = 0.15 (declared 15 sen on Q2), 2009 = 0.45 (declared 33 sen on Q4 and 12 sen on Q2), 2008 = 0.45 (declared 33 sen on Q4 and 12% on Q2), 2007 = 0.3 (declared 20% on Q2 and 10% on Q2)