MAXIS / 6012 - 2009 Q3

OSK TP: 5.80
My TP: 5.25+0.12=5.37 (PE 16, EPS 0.328, DPS 0.12)
My decison: NOT BUY
Reason: Overvalue

My study based on 2009 Q3 report (number in '000):
- ROE 54.67%
- Revenue compare to last year growth 1.75% to 2156000 and profit also growth 28.13%, mainly due to higher mobile subscription base and higher tax charge for 2008
- Got FCF 1108000, NCF -506000
- Profit margin compare to last year increased 5.88% to 28.53%
- 6 sen dividend declared
- My estimate next 4Q eps after 2009 Q3 result announced = 0.082*4 = 0.328, estimate PE on current price 5.37 = 16.01(DPS 0.12)
- Divident in sen 2009 = 0.06(declared 6 sen on Q3)