NOTION / 0083 - 2010 Q1

OSK TP: 3.38
My TP: 3.67+0.03 = 3.7 (PE 10, EPS 0.3674, DPS 0.03)
My decison: NOT BUY
Reason: Bad cash flow

My notes based on 2010 Q1 report (number in '000):
- ROE compare to last Q increased 0.11% to 8.02% and also higher than last year 3.03%
- Revenue compare to last Q growth 3.66% to 56329 and profit also growth 8.87% to 14185, mainly due to revenue growth in the camera sector and economies of scale and higher product mix contribution from the camera sector which contributes better overall margins; As compare to last year revenue growth 24.41% and profit growth 95.84%, mainly attributable to the recovery in all the business segments and favourable foreign exchange rates
- Equity compare to last Q decreased 7.34% to 176781, assets increased 10.82% to 283017 and liabilities also increased 17.13% to 106236; As compare to last year equity increased 21.83%, assets increased 17.31% and liabilities also increased 10.48%
- Minority interest compare to last Q decreased 16.93% to 942 and compare to last year also decreased 13.74%
- Got FCF -1422, NCF -2736
- Profit margin compare to last Q increased 1.2% to 25.18% and also higher than last year 9.18%
- DE compare to last Q increased 0.0502 to 0.6009 but compare to last year decreased 0.0618
- 2.5 sen dividend proposed
- My estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q1 result announced = 0.065+0.1008*3 = 0.3674, estimate PE on current price 3 = 8.08(DPS 0.03)
- From date 2009-11-11 to 2010-02-10 after 2009 Q4 result announced, highest price on 2010-01-21 was 4.33 and lowest price on 2009-11-24 was 3.71. Estimate next 4Q eps = 0.0185*4 = 0.074, estimate highest/lowest PE = 11.62/9.95 (DPS 0.03)
- From date 2009-08-19 to 2009-11-10 after 2009 Q3 result announced, highest price on 2009-11-04 was 2.66 and lowest price on 2009-08-25 was 0.355. Estimate next 4Q eps = 0.0158*4 = 0.0632, estimate highest/lowest PE = 8.39/5.49 (DPS 0.01)
- From date 2009-05-13 to 2009-08-18 after 2009 Q2 result announced, highest price on 2009-08-13 was 0.36 and lowest price on 2009-06-23 was 0.25. Estimate next 4Q eps = 0.0065*4 = 0.026, estimate highest/lowest PE = 13.46/9.23 (DPS 0.01)
- From date 2009-02-20 to 2009-05-12 after 2009 Q1 result announced, highest price on 2009-04-24 was 0.29 and lowest price on 2009-04-02 was 0.16. Estimate next 4Q eps = 0.0103*4 = 0.0412, estimate highest/lowest PE = 6.8/3.64 (DPS 0.01)
- Divident in sen 2009 = 0.03 (proposed 2.5 sen on 2010 Q1 and declared 0.5 sen on 2009 Q4), 2008 = 0.01 (declared 0.5 sen on 2009 Q1 and declared 0.5 sen on 2008 Q4), 2007 = 0.021 (recommended 1.1 sen on 2008 Q1 and declared 1 sen on 2007 Q4)