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Thursday, September 15, 2011

KLCI Stock - PARKSON / 5657 - 2011 Quarter 4

Company Info
Market Capital (Capital Size)6,146,476,823 (Very Large)
Par ValueRM 1.00

My Analysis
Forecast P/E now(5.62-0.16)/0.352 = 15.51 (Moderate)
Target Price6.34+0.16 = 6.50 (PE 18.0, EPS 0.352, DPS 0.16)
DecisionNot interested unless stock price sustain above 5.7
Revenue decreased 11.2% but higher than preceding year corresponding quarter 14.6%, eps decreased 32.7% but higher than preceding year corresponding quarter 19.7%, cash generated from operating is more than enough to cover all expenses, stronger liquidity ratio but still at low level now, lower gearing ratio but still at high level now, lower payables ratio but still high, got new income from Indonesia
First Support Price5.35
Second Support Price5.0

Research House
BIMB Target Price7.57 (2011-01-24)
MIDF Target Price5.9 (2011-04-05)
HwangDBS Target Price6.5 (2011-04-11)
ECM Target Price6.4 (2011-04-14)
RHB Target Price6.23 (2011-06-17)
OSK Target Price7.58 (2011-08-17)
AMMB Target Price6.79 (2011-08-24)

Accounting Ratio
Return on Equity10.31%
Dividend Yield2.67%
Profit Margin25.80%
Tax Rate28.66%
Asset Turnover0.4027
Net Asset Value Per Share2.05
Net Tangible Asset per share0.91
Price/Net Tangible Asset Per Share6.15
Cash Per Share2.51
Liquidity Current Ratio1.3455
Liquidity Quick Ratio1.056
Liquidity Cash Ratio0.9326
Gearing Debt to Equity Ratio1.7479
Gearing Debt to Asset Ratio0.5361
Working capital per thousand Ringgit sale34.7%
Days to sell the inventory129
Days to collect the receivables45
Days to pay the payables258

My notes based on 2011 quarter 4 report (number in '000):-
- The impressive performance was mainly attributed to the healthy same store sales growth across all 3 markets in Malaysia, China and Vietnam (10%, 12% and 21% respectively)

- The improved performance took into account the appreciation of the Ringgit Malaysia against the Chinese Renminbi and the Vietnamese Dong which has resulted in the lower foreign operating results being consolidated into the Group. For illustration purpose, excluding the impact of the currency translation, on a comparable basis, profit before taxation for the year ended 30 June 2011 increased by 21%

- The Group recorded a seasonally lower performance in the current quarter in view of the absence of major festivities as compared to the higher spending during the Chinese New Year festivities in the previous quarter. Group's revenue was 11% lower with a corresponding lower profit before taxation

- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2011 Q4 result announced = 0.32*1.1 = 0.352, estimate PE on current price 5.62 = 15.51(DPS 0.16)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2011 Q3 result announced = 0.3094*1.1 = 0.3403(0.3094 from recent fourth quarter eps), estimate highest/lowest PE = 22.25/14.66 (DPS 0.16)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2011 Q2 result announced = 0.1587*2*1.05 = 0.3333, estimate highest/lowest PE = 17.19/15.09 (DPS 0.16)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2011 Q1 result announced = 0.3015, estimate highest/lowest PE = 19.24/17.38 (DPS 0.15)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q4 result announced = 0.3015, estimate highest/lowest PE = 20.17/17.74 (DPS 0.06)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q3 result announced = 0.2741*1.1 = 0.3015, estimate highest/lowest PE = 18.91/16.42 (DPS 0.05)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q2 result announced = 0.2676*1.1 = 0.2944, estimate highest/lowest PE = 20.48/17.15 (DPS 0.05)

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