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Accounting Ratio
My notes based on 2011 quarter 4 report (number in '000):-
- The impressive performance was mainly attributed to the healthy same store sales growth across all 3 markets in Malaysia, China and Vietnam (10%, 12% and 21% respectively)
- The improved performance took into account the appreciation of the Ringgit Malaysia against the Chinese Renminbi and the Vietnamese Dong which has resulted in the lower foreign operating results being consolidated into the Group. For illustration purpose, excluding the impact of the currency translation, on a comparable basis, profit before taxation for the year ended 30 June 2011 increased by 21%
- The Group recorded a seasonally lower performance in the current quarter in view of the absence of major festivities as compared to the higher spending during the Chinese New Year festivities in the previous quarter. Group's revenue was 11% lower with a corresponding lower profit before taxation
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2011 Q4 result announced = 0.32*1.1 = 0.352, estimate PE on current price 5.62 = 15.51(DPS 0.16)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2011 Q3 result announced = 0.3094*1.1 = 0.3403(0.3094 from recent fourth quarter eps), estimate highest/lowest PE = 22.25/14.66 (DPS 0.16)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2011 Q2 result announced = 0.1587*2*1.05 = 0.3333, estimate highest/lowest PE = 17.19/15.09 (DPS 0.16)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2011 Q1 result announced = 0.3015, estimate highest/lowest PE = 19.24/17.38 (DPS 0.15)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q4 result announced = 0.3015, estimate highest/lowest PE = 20.17/17.74 (DPS 0.06)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q3 result announced = 0.2741*1.1 = 0.3015, estimate highest/lowest PE = 18.91/16.42 (DPS 0.05)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q2 result announced = 0.2676*1.1 = 0.2944, estimate highest/lowest PE = 20.48/17.15 (DPS 0.05)
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| Market Capital (Capital Size) | 6,146,476,823 (Very Large) |
| Par Value | RM 1.00 |
My Analysis
| Forecast P/E now | (5.62-0.16)/0.352 = 15.51 (Moderate) |
| Target Price | 6.34+0.16 = 6.50 (PE 18.0, EPS 0.352, DPS 0.16) |
| Decision | Not interested unless stock price sustain above 5.7 |
| Comment | Revenue decreased 11.2% but higher than preceding year corresponding quarter 14.6%, eps decreased 32.7% but higher than preceding year corresponding quarter 19.7%, cash generated from operating is more than enough to cover all expenses, stronger liquidity ratio but still at low level now, lower gearing ratio but still at high level now, lower payables ratio but still high, got new income from Indonesia |
| First Support Price | 5.35 |
| Second Support Price | 5.0 |
| Risk Rating | MODERATE |
Research House
| BIMB Target Price | 7.57 (2011-01-24) |
| MIDF Target Price | 5.9 (2011-04-05) |
| HwangDBS Target Price | 6.5 (2011-04-11) |
| ECM Target Price | 6.4 (2011-04-14) |
| RHB Target Price | 6.23 (2011-06-17) |
| OSK Target Price | 7.58 (2011-08-17) |
| AMMB Target Price | 6.79 (2011-08-24) |
Accounting Ratio
| Return on Equity | 10.31% |
| Dividend Yield | 2.67% |
| Profit Margin | 25.80% |
| Tax Rate | 28.66% |
| Asset Turnover | 0.4027 |
| Net Asset Value Per Share | 2.05 |
| Net Tangible Asset per share | 0.91 |
| Price/Net Tangible Asset Per Share | 6.15 |
| Cash Per Share | 2.51 |
| Liquidity Current Ratio | 1.3455 |
| Liquidity Quick Ratio | 1.056 |
| Liquidity Cash Ratio | 0.9326 |
| Gearing Debt to Equity Ratio | 1.7479 |
| Gearing Debt to Asset Ratio | 0.5361 |
| Working capital per thousand Ringgit sale | 34.7% |
| Days to sell the inventory | 129 |
| Days to collect the receivables | 45 |
| Days to pay the payables | 258 |
My notes based on 2011 quarter 4 report (number in '000):-
- The impressive performance was mainly attributed to the healthy same store sales growth across all 3 markets in Malaysia, China and Vietnam (10%, 12% and 21% respectively)
- The improved performance took into account the appreciation of the Ringgit Malaysia against the Chinese Renminbi and the Vietnamese Dong which has resulted in the lower foreign operating results being consolidated into the Group. For illustration purpose, excluding the impact of the currency translation, on a comparable basis, profit before taxation for the year ended 30 June 2011 increased by 21%
- The Group recorded a seasonally lower performance in the current quarter in view of the absence of major festivities as compared to the higher spending during the Chinese New Year festivities in the previous quarter. Group's revenue was 11% lower with a corresponding lower profit before taxation
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2011 Q4 result announced = 0.32*1.1 = 0.352, estimate PE on current price 5.62 = 15.51(DPS 0.16)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2011 Q3 result announced = 0.3094*1.1 = 0.3403(0.3094 from recent fourth quarter eps), estimate highest/lowest PE = 22.25/14.66 (DPS 0.16)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2011 Q2 result announced = 0.1587*2*1.05 = 0.3333, estimate highest/lowest PE = 17.19/15.09 (DPS 0.16)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2011 Q1 result announced = 0.3015, estimate highest/lowest PE = 19.24/17.38 (DPS 0.15)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q4 result announced = 0.3015, estimate highest/lowest PE = 20.17/17.74 (DPS 0.06)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q3 result announced = 0.2741*1.1 = 0.3015, estimate highest/lowest PE = 18.91/16.42 (DPS 0.05)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q2 result announced = 0.2676*1.1 = 0.2944, estimate highest/lowest PE = 20.48/17.15 (DPS 0.05)
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