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Sunday, September 4, 2011

KLCI Stock - SEB / 5163 - 2011 Quarter 2

Company Info
Market Capital (Capital Size)36,000,000 (Very Small)
Par ValueRM 0.50

My Analysis
Forecast P/E now(0.45-0.01)/0.0496 = 8.87 (High)
Target Price0.22+0.01 = 0.23 (PE 4.5, EPS 0.0496, DPS 0.01)
DecisionNot interested unless revenue and profit increase more
Revenue increased 13.3% and also higher than preceding year corresponding quarter 89%, eps largely increased 687.5% and also higher than preceding year corresponding quarter 17.8%, cash generated from operating and financing is more than enough to cover financing payments and still spent for purchase property, plant and equipment, weaker liquidity ratio at low level now, higher gearing ratio at moderate level now, all accounting ratio got slightly high
First Support Price0.45
Second Support Price0.42
Risk RatingHIGH

Accounting Ratio
Return on Equity6.66%
Dividend Yield2.22%
Profit Margin7.06%
Tax Rate23.14%
Asset Turnover0.7012
Net Asset Value Per Share0.71
Net Tangible Asset per share0.71
Price/Net Tangible Asset Per Share0.63
Cash Per Share0.21
Liquidity Current Ratio1.8331
Liquidity Quick Ratio1.3268
Liquidity Cash Ratio0.4724
Gearing Debt to Equity Ratio0.7449
Gearing Debt to Asset Ratio0.4243
Working capital per thousand Ringgit sale42.7%
Days to sell the inventory102
Days to collect the receivables160
Days to pay the payables108

My notes based on 2011 quarter 2 report (number in '000):
- The Group showed a higher PBT for current year and current quarter as compared to preceding year and preceding year corresponding quarter was mainly due to higher sales

- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2011 Q2 result announced = 0.0496, estimate PE on current price 0.45 = 8.87(DPS 0.01)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2011 Q1 result announced = 0.0496, estimate highest/lowest PE = 10.69/8.87 (DPS 0.01)
- Next quarter Q1 result maybe low, use year 2010 cum_eps to estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q4 result announced = 0.0431*1.15 = 0.0496(revenue, profit and receivables also largely increased), estimate highest/lowest PE = 12.9/9.98 (DPS 0.01)
- Revenue QbQ increasing more than 15%, use 10% profit margin, estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q3 result announced = (0.0168+0.0193)*2 = 0.0722, estimate highest/lowest PE = 9.63/8.1

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