3A / 0012 - 2009 Q4

Market Cap : 369600019*1.9 = 702,240,036.10 (Small)
NTA per share : 136245/369600 = 0.37
P/BV : 1.9/0.37 = 5.1351 (High)
Forecast P/E now : (1.9-0.016)/0.076 = 24.79 (High)
ROE : 13.24% (Moderate)

My TP: 1.22+0.016=1.24 (EPS 0.076, PE 16, DPS 0.016)
My decison: NOT BUY
Reason: Overvalue

My study based on 2009 Q3 report (number in '000):
- There is an increase of 71.5% in the turnover of the Group for the current quarter from RM32.177 million
to RM55.197 million as compared to the corresponding quarter in the preceding year mainly due to better demand for the Group's products
- The Group's profit before taxation is significantly higher or from RM0.234 million in the preceding year corresponding quarter to RM6.493 million for the current quarter under review as a result of higher turnover and improvement in products margin
- The Group's turnover in the current quarter of RM55.197 million is 22.3% higher than RM45.136 million recorded in the immediate preceding quarter. However, the profit before taxation for the current quarter of RM6.493 million is lower by 8.0% than that recorded in the immediate preceding quarter of RM7.055 million. The reason is due to lower products margin recorded on increasing raw materials costs for the quarter quarter under review
- My estimate next 4Q eps after 2009 Q4 result announced = 0.076 (~30% EPS grow), estimate PE on current price 2.1 = 27.42 (DPS 0.016)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2009 Q3 result announced = 0.0191*4 = 0.0764, estimate highest/lowest PE = 30.68/15.63 (DPS 0.016)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2009 Q2 result announced = 0.0178*4 = 0.0712, estimate highest/lowest PE = 23.74/7.09 (DPS 0.01)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2009 Q1 result announced = 0.0069*4 = 0.0276, estimate highest/lowest PE = 21.56/11.96 (DPS 0.01)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2008 Q4 result announced = 0.0079*4 = 0.0316, estimate highest/lowest PE = 11.55/9.34 (DPS 0.01)

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