TCHONG / 4405 - 2009 Q4

OSK TP: 4.26 (12 March 2010)
My TP: 4.09 + 0.11 = 4.2 (PE 16, EPS 0.2556, DPS 0.11)
My decison: BUY
Reason: Revenue and profit rose

My study based on 2009 Q3 report (number in '000):
- Revenues rose 10.8% to RM720.2 million in comparison to the same period in 2008. These headline numbers are achieved during a seasonally weaker period
- Margins have begun to rise in earnest after falling four consecutive quarters. Q409 bottom line was flattered by a stronger Ringgit and higher Reinvestment Allowance claims that lowered the tax rate considerably
- My estimate next 4Q eps after 2009 Q4 result announced = 0.0639*4 = 0.2556, estimate PE on current price 3.28 = 12.4(DPS 0.11)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2009 Q3 result announced = .0527*4 = 0.2108, estimate highest/lowest PE = 16.65/10.44 (DPS 0.1)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2009 Q2 result announced = 0.0528*4 = 0.2112, estimate highest/lowest PE = 12.31/8.19 (DPS 0.1)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2009 Q1 result announced = 0.0626*4 = 0.2504, estimate highest/lowest PE = 7.35/5.39 (DPS 0.1)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2008 Q4 result announced = 0.0425*4 = 0.17, estimate highest/lowest PE = 9.12/6.12 (DPS 0.1)