KURASIA / 5097 - 2009 Q6

OSK TP: 0.92 (24 Feb 2010)
My TP: 0.68 (PE 9, EPS 0.0753), 16% price earn from 0.57
My decison: NOT BUY
Reason: Many result declined, higher tax rate

My study based on 2009 Q6 report (number in '000):
- Compare to last year, the significant improvement wasmainly driven by a very strong turnaround performance on the Group’s investment portfolio year-on-year
- On the underwriting end, the Group’s gross premium and earned premium declined year-on-year due to its more stringentrisk selection practice
- Compare to preceding quarter, both underwriting and investmentperformance slowed down. Whilst the Group’s gross premium improved, earned premium declined, underwriting surplus declined, investment and other income declined
- My estimate next 4Q eps after 2009 Q6 result announced = 0.0753, estimate PE on current price 0.57 = 7.57
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2009 Q5 result announced = 0.0216*4 = 0.0864, estimate highest/lowest PE = 9.32/7.29
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2009 Q4 result announced = 0.0287*4 = 0.1148, estimate highest/lowest PE = 6.88/4.53
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2009 Q3 result announced = 0.0177*4 = 0.0708, estimate highest/lowest PE = 8.4/4.87
- No estimate next 4Q eps after 2009 Q2 result announced