KLCI Stock - MISC / 3816 - 2010 Quarter 3

Market Cap : 4463793103*9 = 40,174,137,927 (Large)
NTA per share : (19009095-960689)/4463793 = 4.04
P/BV : 9/4.04 = 2.2277 (Moderate)
Forecast P/E now : (9-0.35)/0.1828 = 47.32 (High)
ROE : 3.36% (Low)
DY : 0.35/9*100 = 3.89% (Low)
Fixed Asset Turnover(3 year) : (0.3903+0.4274+0.4132)/3 = 0.4103 (Low)
Liquidity Ratio : 6898856/8236979 = 0.8375 (Weak)
Receivables Collection Period : (3118289+2858759)/2/(14466643/365) = 75 days (Acceptable)
My Target Price : Not interested
My Decision : NOT BUY
My Comment : Revenue dropping, low ROE, bad cash flow, high PE, high debt, navps decreasing
Technical Support Price : 8
Risk Rating : HIGH
OSK Target Price : 10 (25 Feb 2010)

My study based on 2010 Quarter 3 report (number in '000):-
- Compare to last year, the decrease of profit before taxation was mainly due to lower profit in Petroleum business and higher losses in Chemical and Liner businesses. The Group's cost reduction efforts have led to lower operating costs especially in cargo costs, charter hire payable and slots payable
- Compare to preceding quarter, profit before taxation was higher (excluding loss on disposal of ships) mainly from increased profit in LNG and Heavy Engineering businesses
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q3 result announced = 0.0457*4=0.1828, estimate PE on current price 8.01 = 41.9(DPS 0.35)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q2 result announced = 0.0457*4=0.1828, estimate highest/lowest PE = 47.37/40.59 (DPS 0.35)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q1 result announced = 0.0544*4=0.2176, estimate highest/lowest PE = 42/37.91 (DPS 0.35)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2009 Q4 result announced = 0.058*4=0.232, estimate highest/lowest PE = 37.07/33.62 (DPS 0.35)

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