LEADER / 4529 - 2009 Q4

OSK TP: 1.16 (18 Feb 2010)
My decison: NOT BUY
Reason: Overvalue, cumulative revenue dropped, pbt dropped

My study based on 2009 Q4 report (number in '000):
- The Group's profit before taxation for the current reporting quarter was lower as there were reversal of provisions in the corresponding quarterended 31 December 2008
- The year-to-date lower revenue due to lower sales volume coupled with lower metal prices had resulted in the Group registering both lowergross profit and profit before tax
- Compare to previous quarter, profit before taxation was lower due to less favourable sales mix
- My estimate next 4Q eps after 2009 Q4 result announced = 0.0261*4 = 0.1044, estimate PE on current price 0.915 = 8.48(DPS 0.03)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2009 Q3 result announced = 0.0363*4 = 0.1452, estimate highest/lowest PE = 6.44/4.92 (DPS 0.03)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2009 Q2 result announced = 0.032*4 = 0.128, estimate highest/lowest PE = 6.29/5.35 (DPS 0.03)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2009 Q1 result announced = 0.0281*4 = 0.1124, estimate highest/lowest PE = 7.38/5.2 (DPS 0.03)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2008 Q4 result announced = 0.0289*4 = 0.1156, estimate highest/lowest PE = 5.97/3.16 (DPS 0.03)