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Wednesday, February 29, 2012

KLCI Stock - MAYBULK / 5077 - 2011 Quarter 4


My notes based on 2011 quarter 4 report (number in '000):-
- Lower revenue and pbt than FY10Q4 as a result of the lower charter rates earned lower average charter rates earned by dry bulk carriers in line with the falling BDI due to overcapacity

- The tanker market remained stagnant, although tankers average charter rates improved but revenue declined due to lower revenue days. Factors contributing to the lower revenue days are the disposal of a tanker in February 2011, the scheduled docking for 3 tankers and downtime awaiting employment

- Higher revenue and pbt than FY11Q3 due to charter rates improved whilst revenue days increased

- Lower other operating loss mainly due to reduced losses on foreign exchange and lower mark-to-market losses on investment. The fourth quarter 2011 “other operating loss” figure also includes reversal of a provision for a UK lease and an accounting adjustment for foreign exchange to comply with MFRS 121

- Lower administrative costs than FY11Q3 as the current quarter’s figure includes an overprovision in the previous quarters

- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2011 Q4 result announced = 1795850*0.04/1000000 = 0.0718, estimate PE on current price 1.75 = 23.96(DPS 0.03)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2011 Q3 result announced = 0.0219*4 = 0.0876, estimate highest/lowest PE = 30.59/15.3 (DPS 0.05)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2011 Q2 result announced = (0.0219+0.0427)*2 = 0.1292, estimate highest/lowest PE = 14.71/12 (DPS 0.1)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2011 Q1 result announced = 0.0427(exclude RM10 million other income)*4 = 0.1708, estimate highest/lowest PE = 13.23/10.42 (DPS 0.1)

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