KLCI Stock - CIMB / 1023 - 2011 Quarter 4

CIMB GROUP HOLDINGS BERHAD


My notes based on 2011 quarter 4 report (number in '000):-
- Higher pbt mainly from Treasury & Investment and Foreign Banking segments

- The Group’s Malaysian Consumer Banking division PBT declined 24.1% Q-o-Q mainly due to a one off change in methodology in provisions for retail loans. CIB was 42.7% lower given the slower advisory activities in 4Q11 but Treasury and Investments was 73.3% higher due to a large gain on deconsolidation of investment in CIMB Aviva. CIMB Niaga’s PBT contribution was 3.5% lower Q-o-Q at RM390 million. GAM and Insurance PBT fell 5.6% to RM17 million. CIMB Thai’s PBT contribution (after GAAP adjustments) increased three-fold to RM49 million compared to 3Q11

- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2011 Q4 result announced = 27005917*0.15/7432772 = 0.545, estimate PE on current price 7.5 = 13.32(DPS 0.24)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2011 Q3 result announced = 0.4176*1.05 = 0.4385, estimate highest/lowest PE = 16.42/14.6 (DPS 0.24)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2011 Q2 result announced = 0.1305*0.8*4 = 0.4176(reduce 20% non-interest income due to market sluggish), estimate highest/lowest PE = 18.22/15.09 (DPS 0.26)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2011 Q1 result announced = 0.1097*4*1.1 = 0.4827(deduct RM160 million losses on loans, advance & financing), estimate highest/lowest PE = 18.29/15.66 (DPS 0.18)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q4 result announced = 0.49*1.05 = 0.5145, estimate highest/lowest PE = 15.86/14.69 (DPS 0.26)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q3 result announced = 0.1267*4*0.97 = 0.4916, estimate highest/lowest PE = 18.29/15.99 (DPS 0.18)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q2 result announced = 0.125*4*1.1 = 0.55, estimate highest/lowest PE = 15.42/13.78 (DPS 0.14)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q1 result announced = 0.2366*4*1.1 = 1.041(10% increase quarter-by-quarter), after bonus estimate eps = 1.041/2 = 0.5205, estimate highest/lowest PE = 15.19/12.46 (DPS 0.185/2 = 0.0925)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2009 Q4 result announced = 0.2268*4*1.1 = 0.9979, estimate highest/lowest PE = 14.67/12.5 (DPS 0.185)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2009 Q3 result announced = 0.2058*4*1.1 = 0.9055, estimate highest/lowest PE = 14.72/13.04 (DPS 0.25)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2009 Q2 result announced = 0.1879*4*1.1 = 0.8268, estimate highest/lowest PE = 15.59/11.73 (DPS 0.25)

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