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Thursday, February 16, 2012

KLCI Stock - HAIO / 7668 - 2012 Quarter 2


Company Info 
Market Capital (Capital Size)452,906,231 (Small)
Par ValueRM 0.50

My Analysis 
Forecast P/E now(2.24-0.06)/0.1734 = 12.57 (Moderate)
Target Price2.25+0.06 = 2.31 (PE 13.0, EPS 0.1734, DPS 0.06)
DecisionNot interested unless stock price strong support above 2.15
Comment
Revenue increased 10.3% and also higher than preceding year corresponding quarter 6.8%, eps increased 1.8% and also higher than preceding year corresponding quarter 28.3%, cash generated from operating and disposal enough to cover all expenses, stronger liquidity ratio at strong level now, lower gearing ratio at below moderate level now, all accounting ratio are good, lower inventory can indicate products demand not much different or lower, main profit contributor MLM growth
First Support Price2.15
Second Support Price1.88
Risk RatingMODERATE

Research House
RHB Target Price1.35 (2011-03-24)
Affin Target Price1.27 (2011-09-29)
OSK Target Price1.7 (2011-12-22)

Accounting Ratio 
Return on Equity13.96%
Dividend Yield3.35%
Profit Margin20.02%
Tax Rate25.28%
Asset Turnover0.8156
Net Asset Value Per Share1.1
Net Tangible Asset per share1.09
Price/Net Tangible Asset Per Share1.65
Cash Per Share0.49
Liquidity Current Ratio4.5592
Liquidity Quick Ratio3.4036
Liquidity Cash Ratio2.7384
Gearing Debt to Equity Ratio0.207
Gearing Debt to Asset Ratio0.1658
Working capital per thousand Ringgit sale57.3%
Days to sell the inventory82
Days to collect the receivables39
Days to pay the payables48

Technical Analysis 
SMA 202.257 (Uptrend 33 days)
SMA 502.025 (Uptrend)
SMA 1001.894 (Uptrend)
SMA 2001.96 (Same)
MACD0.120439 (Downtrend 4 days)
MACD Histogram0.011962 (Uptrend 33 days)

My notes based on 2012 quarter 2 report (number in '000):-
- Higher revenue and pbt mainly due to successful MLM members’ sales campaign

- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2012 Q2 result announced = 0.0394*4*1.1 = 0.1734, estimate PE on current price 2.24 = 12.57(DPS 0.075)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2012 Q1 result announced = 0.0387*4*1.05 = 0.1625, estimate highest/lowest PE = 11.72/9.38 (DPS 0.075)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2011 Q4 result announced = (0.0428+0.0318)*2*1.05 = 0.1567, estimate highest/lowest PE = 13.37/9.41 (DPS 0.075)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2011 Q3 result announced = 0.0318*4*1.05 = 0.1336, estimate highest/lowest PE = 17.33/14.93 (DPS 0.075)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2011 Q2 result announced = 0.0307*4*0.95 = 0.1167, estimate highest/lowest PE = 23.91/18.25 (DPS 0.1)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2011 Q1 result announced = 0.0391*4 = 0.1564, estimate highest/lowest PE = 20.01/17.46 (DPS 0.12)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q4 result announced = 0.0714*4 = 0.2856*1.1(10% QbQ improvement adjustment) = 0.3142, estimate highest/lowest PE = 12.16/8.78 (DPS 0.2)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q3 result announced = 0.3729, estimate highest/lowest PE = 12.42/9.17 (DPS 0.18)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q2 result announced = 0.2424*4 = 0.9696, estimate highest/lowest PE = 10.78/7.44(DPS 0.42)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q1 result announced = 0.2217*4 = 0.8868, estimate highest/lowest PE = 8.54/6.33 (DPS 0.42)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2009 Q4 result announced = 0.1778*4 = 0.7112, estimate highest/lowest PE = 7.44/5.76 (DPS 0.4)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2009 Q3 result announced = 0.1463*4 = 0.5852, estimate highest/lowest PE = 6.9/5.06 (DPS 0.4)

HAIO latest news (English)

HAIO latest news (Chinese)

1 comment:

WenJune said...

any idea on the intrinsic value?

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