Company Info
My Analysis
Research House
Accounting Ratio
Technical Analysis
My notes based on 2012 Quarter 1 report (number in '000):-
- Lower pbt than FY11Q1 was primarily attributed to the continuously volatile raw material prices and oversupply situation in the industry. The average latex price rose by 16.0% (from RM7.19/kg to RM8.34/kg) whilst the average nitrile price increased by 46.4% (from USD1.40/kg to USD2.05/kg). The PBT was also impacted by recognition of net loss in foreign exchange amounting to RM13.3 million compared with a net gain of RM4.7 million
- Higher pbt than FY11Q4 primarily attributed to a decline in latex prices which fell by 9.2% (from RM9.19/kg to RM8.34/kg) and a stronger average US Dollar against the Ringgit which strengthened by 4.0% (from RM3.00 to RM3.12)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2012 Q1 result announced = (0.0508*1.2)+(0.0508*1.1*3) = 0.2286, estimate PE on current price 5.01 = 21.43(DPS 0.11)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2011 Q4 result announced = (0.0417*1.4)+(0.0417*1.4*1.1*3) = 0.251, estimate highest/lowest PE = 18.49/15.5 (DPS 0.11)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2011 Q3 result announced = 0.047*4*1.2 = 0.2256, estimate highest/lowest PE = 25.62/16.62 (DPS 0.1)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q4 result announced = 0.08+0.088+0.0968+0.1065 = 0.3713, estimate highest/lowest PE = 15.19/13.74 (DPS 0.23)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q3 result announced = 0.2122*4 = 0.8488*1.1 = 0.9337(10% adjustment), estimate highest/lowest PE = 15.5/10.36 (DPS 0.29)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q2 result announced = 0.235*4 = 0.94, estimate highest/lowest PE = 14.68/11.66 (DPS 0.22)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q1 result announced = 0.217*4 = 0.868, estimate highest/lowest PE = 14.31/10.75 (DPS 0.22)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2009 Q4 result announced = 0.191*4 = 0.764, estimate highest/lowest PE = 12.23/10.2 (DPS 0.22)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2009 Q3 result announced = 0.1424*4 = 0.5696, estimate highest/lowest PE = 14.04/10.8 (DPS 0.15)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2009 Q2 result announced = 0.1221*4 = 0.4884, estimate highest/lowest PE = 13.21/9.89 (DPS 0.15)
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| Market Capital (Capital Size) | 3,099,141,220 (Large) |
| Par Value | RM 0.50 |
My Analysis
| Forecast P/E now | (5.01-0.11)/0.2286 = 21.43 (High) |
| Target Price | 4.57+0.11 = 4.68 (PE 20.0, EPS 0.2286, DPS 0.11) |
| Decision | Not interested unless latex price decrease or USD strengthen again RM |
| Comment | Revenue increased 2.4% and was third consecutive quarter increasing and also higher than preceding year corresponding quarter 12.9%, eps increased 21.8% and was third consecutive quarter increasing but still lower than preceding year corresponding quarter 12.7%, cash generated from operating more than enough to cover all expenses, slightly lower liquidity ratio at high level now, higher gearing ratio from low to below moderate level now, all accounting ratio are good, higher inventory can indicate Group products demand still good, affecting by weakeaning of USD against RM and increasing of latex price |
| First Support Price | 4.1 |
| Second Support Price | 3.9 |
| Risk Rating | MODERATE |
Research House
| Kenanga Target Price | 3.97 (2011-06-17) |
| Citi Target Price | 5.95 (2011-06-20) |
| Affin Target Price | 4.62 (2011-09-08) |
| AMMB Target Price | 3.1 (2011-09-29) |
| CIMB Target Price | 3.29 (2011-10-19) |
| TA Target Price | 5 (2011-12-16) |
| BIMB Target Price | 5.26 (2011-12-19) |
| Maybank Target Price | 3.4 (2011-12-19) |
| RHB Target Price | 3.63 (2011-12-19) |
| HwangDBS Target Price | 4.05 (2011-12-20) |
| MIDF Target Price | 3.61 (2012-01-11) |
| OSK Target Price | 6 (2012-01-11) |
Accounting Ratio
| Return on Equity | 9.45% |
| Dividend Yield | 2.20% |
| Profit Margin | 7.50% |
| Tax Rate | 21.97% |
| Asset Turnover | 1.4286 |
| Net Asset Value Per Share | 1.87 |
| Net Tangible Asset per share | 1.84 |
| Price/Net Tangible Asset Per Share | 2.41 |
| Cash Per Share | 0.34 |
| Liquidity Current Ratio | 3.0735 |
| Liquidity Quick Ratio | 1.8195 |
| Liquidity Cash Ratio | 0.8644 |
| Gearing Debt to Equity Ratio | 0.256 |
| Gearing Debt to Asset Ratio | 0.2003 |
| Working capital per thousand Ringgit sale | 24.2% |
| Days to sell the inventory | 57 |
| Days to collect the receivables | 37 |
| Days to pay the payables | 35 |
Technical Analysis
| SMA 20 | 5.105 (Downtrend 1 day) |
| SMA 50 | 4.819 (Uptrend) |
| SMA 100 | 4.479 (Uptrend) |
| SMA 200 | 4.799 (Same) |
| MACD | 0.166715 (Downtrend 12 days) |
| MACD Histogram | -0.013706 (Downtrend 4 days) |
My notes based on 2012 Quarter 1 report (number in '000):-
- Lower pbt than FY11Q1 was primarily attributed to the continuously volatile raw material prices and oversupply situation in the industry. The average latex price rose by 16.0% (from RM7.19/kg to RM8.34/kg) whilst the average nitrile price increased by 46.4% (from USD1.40/kg to USD2.05/kg). The PBT was also impacted by recognition of net loss in foreign exchange amounting to RM13.3 million compared with a net gain of RM4.7 million
- Higher pbt than FY11Q4 primarily attributed to a decline in latex prices which fell by 9.2% (from RM9.19/kg to RM8.34/kg) and a stronger average US Dollar against the Ringgit which strengthened by 4.0% (from RM3.00 to RM3.12)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2012 Q1 result announced = (0.0508*1.2)+(0.0508*1.1*3) = 0.2286, estimate PE on current price 5.01 = 21.43(DPS 0.11)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2011 Q4 result announced = (0.0417*1.4)+(0.0417*1.4*1.1*3) = 0.251, estimate highest/lowest PE = 18.49/15.5 (DPS 0.11)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2011 Q3 result announced = 0.047*4*1.2 = 0.2256, estimate highest/lowest PE = 25.62/16.62 (DPS 0.1)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q4 result announced = 0.08+0.088+0.0968+0.1065 = 0.3713, estimate highest/lowest PE = 15.19/13.74 (DPS 0.23)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q3 result announced = 0.2122*4 = 0.8488*1.1 = 0.9337(10% adjustment), estimate highest/lowest PE = 15.5/10.36 (DPS 0.29)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q2 result announced = 0.235*4 = 0.94, estimate highest/lowest PE = 14.68/11.66 (DPS 0.22)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q1 result announced = 0.217*4 = 0.868, estimate highest/lowest PE = 14.31/10.75 (DPS 0.22)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2009 Q4 result announced = 0.191*4 = 0.764, estimate highest/lowest PE = 12.23/10.2 (DPS 0.22)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2009 Q3 result announced = 0.1424*4 = 0.5696, estimate highest/lowest PE = 14.04/10.8 (DPS 0.15)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2009 Q2 result announced = 0.1221*4 = 0.4884, estimate highest/lowest PE = 13.21/9.89 (DPS 0.15)
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