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Friday, October 14, 2011

KLCI Stock - MAYBULK / 5077 - 2011 Quarter 2

Company Info
Market Capital (Capital Size)1,840,000,000 (Large)
Par ValueRM 0.25

My Analysis
Forecast P/E now(1.84-0.1)/0.1292 = 13.47 (High)
Target Price1.55+0.1 = 1.65 (PE 12.0, EPS 0.1292, DPS 0.1)
DecisionNot interested unless stock price sustain above 1.8
Revenue decreased 18% and also lower than preceding year corresponding quarter 27.5%, eps decreased 58.4% and was third consecutive quarter decreasing and also lower than preceding year corresponding quarter 30.7%, cash generated from operating after deduct payables expenses and cash generated from disposal not enough to cover financing expenses hence spent 24.5% of Group cash to cover, weaker liquidity ratio from very strong to strong level now, slightly lower gearing ratio at low level now, all accounting ratio are good, affecting by lower charter rates
First Support Price1.7
Second Support Price1.6

Research House
OSK Target Price2.21 (2011-05-26)
MIDF Target Price2.82 (2011-06-17)

Accounting Ratio
Return on Equity13.45%
Dividend Yield5.43%
Profit Margin33.05%
Tax Rate2.02%
Asset Turnover0.1863
Net Asset Value Per Share1.63
Net Tangible Asset per share1.63
Price/Net Tangible Asset Per Share1.23
Cash Per Share0.36
Liquidity Current Ratio4.1249
Liquidity Quick Ratio4.0546
Liquidity Cash Ratio3.5351
Gearing Debt to Equity Ratio0.114
Gearing Debt to Asset Ratio0.0992
Working capital per thousand Ringgit sale91.6%
Days to sell the inventory12
Days to collect the receivables56
Days to pay the payables101

My notes based on 2011 quarter 2 report (number in '000):-
- The BDI started the year at 1,693 and ended the first half 2011 at 1,413. For first half 2011, the BDI averaged 1,372 points reflecting a 57% decline from the average of 3,165 registered in the first half of last year. TCE/day for dry bulk carriers in 1H2011 was US$19,604/day compared to 1H2010’s TCE/day of US$28,387. The tanker market continued to remain weak with MBC’s tankers’ earning US$12,952/day in 1H2011, against last year’s comparative average of US$13,059/day

- Lower operating profit mainly due to the lower charter rates

- Other operating income was a RM19.2 million comprises of gains from foreign exchange, investment activities and disposal of a tanker

- Contribution from associate (POSH) declined 76% due to the continued weakness in the offshore service sector. Contribution from the jointly controlled entities in the dry bulk sector declined 65%

- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2011 Q2 result announced = (0.0219+0.0427)*2 = 0.1292, estimate PE on current price 1.84 = 13.47(DPS 0.1)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2011 Q1 result announced = 0.0427(exclude RM10 million other income)*4 = 0.1708, estimate highest/lowest PE = 13.23/10.42 (DPS 0.1)

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