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Saturday, October 22, 2011

KLCI Stock - ADVENTA / 7191 - 2011 Quarter 3

Company Info
Market Capital (Capital Size)255,152,235 (Small)
Par ValueRM 0.50

My Analysis
Forecast P/E now(1.67-0.02)/0.0728 = 22.66 (High)
Target Price0.73+0.02 = 0.75 (PE 10.0, EPS 0.0728, DPS 0.02)
DecisionNot interested unless stock price sustain above 1.7
Comment
Revenue decreased 0.7% and was second consecutive quarter decreasing but still higher than preceding year corresponding quarter 18.5%, eps decreased 12.3% and also lower than preceding year corresponding quarter 52.2%, no cash generated from operating but cash generated from financing more than enough to cover all expenses, stronger liquidity ratio but still at low level now, higher gearing ratio from above moderate to high level now, all accounting ratio are good, maintaining high inventory can mean demand still strong, benefit from USD strengthening and latex price decreasing
First Support Price1.54
Second Support Price1.45
Risk RatingMODERATE

Research House
CIMB Target Price1.49 (2011-09-29)
OSK Target Price2 (2011-09-29)

Accounting Ratio
Return on Equity10.92%
Dividend Yield4.19%
Profit Margin2.90%
Tax Rate-
Asset Turnover0.8327
Net Asset Value Per Share1.47
Net Tangible Asset per share1.45
Price/Net Tangible Asset Per Share1.01
Cash Per Share0.41
Liquidity Current Ratio1.4406
Liquidity Quick Ratio0.9523
Liquidity Cash Ratio0.3985
Gearing Debt to Equity Ratio1.1576
Gearing Debt to Asset Ratio0.5356
Working capital per thousand Ringgit sale17.1%
Days to sell the inventory72
Days to collect the receivables79
Days to pay the payables42

My notes based on 2011 quarter 3 report (number in '000):-
- Lower pbt than FY10Q3 due to weaknesses in USD and higher raw material cost despite achieving cost savings across the Group

- Lower revenue and pbt due to Ringgit contributed to the small drop and earnings are still weak from sustained commodity prices

- Internal growth grew at all subsidiaries except in Uruguay where a severe winter cut off fuel supplies, reducing production output

- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2011 Q3 result announced = 0.013*4*1.4 = 0.0728(exclude RM2 million from tax and other income), estimate PE on current price 1.67 = 22.66(DPS 0.07)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2011 Q2 result announced = 0.03*4*1.3 = 0.156, estimate highest/lowest PE = 12.69/8.85 (DPS 0.07)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2011 Q1 result announced = 0.0265*4*1.3 = 0.1378(slowly recover), estimate highest/lowest PE = 16.91/13.5 (DPS 0.07)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q4 result announced = 0.04*4 = 0.16, estimate highest/lowest PE = 17.38/12.44 (DPS 0.07)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q3 result announced = 0.055*4*0.95 = 0.209, estimate highest/lowest PE = 12.39/8.71 (DPS 0.07)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q2 result announced = 0.0434*4 = 0.1736*1.1(QbQ improvement adjustment) = 0.191, estimate highest/lowest PE = 16.81/11.78 (DPS 0.07)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q1 result announced = 0.063*4 = 0.252, estimate highest/lowest PE = 15.36/11.35 (DPS 0.07)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2009 Q4 result announced = 0.0372*4 = 0.1488, estimate highest/lowest PE = 28.83/18.28 (DPS 0.06)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2009 Q3 result announced = 0.0319*4 = 0.1276, estimate highest/lowest PE = 23.2/11.36 (DPS 0.06)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2009 Q2 result announced = 0.0272*4 = 0.1088, estimate highest/lowest PE = 19.39/7.77 (DPS 0.06)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2009 Q1 result announced = 0.0232*4 = 0.092, estimate highest/lowest PE = 13.04/8.26 (DPS 0.06)

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1 comment:

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