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Tuesday, October 18, 2011

KLCI Stock - PELIKAN / 5231 - 2011 Quarter 2

Company Info
Market Capital (Capital Size)425,620,730 (Small)
Par ValueRM 1.00

My Analysis
Forecast P/E now(0.83-0.02)/0.066 = 12.27 (High)
Target Price0.66+0.02 = 0.68 (PE 10.0, EPS 0.066, DPS 0.02)
DecisionNot interested unless stock price got strong uptrend signal
Revenue increased 9.6% and also higher than preceding year corresponding quarter 2.6%, eps increased 113.4% and was second consecutive quarter increasing but still lower than preceding year corresponding quarter 33.8%, not enough cash for operating expenses and cash from borrowings also not enough to cover all expenses hence spent 3.9% of Group cash to cover, slightly weaker liquidity ratio at low level now, higher gearing ratio at high level now, all accounting ratio are good, going to benefit from strengthening of USD or EUR against MYR, higher inventory and receivables can indicate sales increase
First Support Price0.8
Second Support Price0.76

Research House
HwangDBS Target Price1.2 (2011-02-10)
ECM Target Price1 (2011-08-25)

Accounting Ratio
Return on Equity3.31%
Dividend Yield2.41%
Profit Margin3.83%
Tax Rate32.89%
Asset Turnover0.9495
Net Asset Value Per Share1.78
Net Tangible Asset per share1.56
Price/Net Tangible Asset Per Share0.54
Cash Per Share0.25
Liquidity Current Ratio1.3925
Liquidity Quick Ratio0.7451
Liquidity Cash Ratio0.1692
Gearing Debt to Equity Ratio1.2932
Gearing Debt to Asset Ratio0.5568
Working capital per thousand Ringgit sale14.9%
Days to sell the inventory91
Days to collect the receivables79
Days to pay the payables78

My notes based on 2011 quarter 2 report (number in '000):-
- Higher input costs of raw materials which takes time to be passed to customers, additional operational restructuring expenses and weakening of the Group’s major trade currencies such as Euro and United States Dollar (“USD”) against Ringgit Malaysia (“RM”) causing slight decrease in margin

- Higher revenue mainly due to stronger sales from the “back to school” season in the European markets

- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2011 Q2 result announced = 0.06*1.1 = 0.066, estimate PE on current price 0.83 = 12.27(DPS 0.02)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2011 Q1 result announced = 0.075*0.8 = 0.06, estimate highest/lowest PE = 17.17/13.5 (DPS 0.02)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q4 result announced = 0.09*0.9 = 0.081, estimate highest/lowest PE = 14.32/12.1 (DPS 0.02)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q3 result announced = 0.09, estimate highest/lowest PE = 15.56/12.67 (DPS 0.02)

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