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Thursday, October 20, 2011

KLCI Stock - ANNJOO / 6556 - 2011 Quarter 2

Company Info
Market Capital (Capital Size)1,102,914,255 (Large)
Par ValueRM 1.00

My Analysis
Forecast P/E now(2.11-0.1034)/0.1526 = 13.15 (High)
Target Price1.83+0.1034 = 1.93 (PE 12.0, EPS 0.1526, DPS 0.1034)
DecisionNot interested unless stock price next uptrend start above 2
Revenue decreased 0.4% and also lower than preceding year corresponding quarter 6.8%, eps decreased 20.8 and also lower than preceding year corresponding quarter 51.1%, cash generated from operating more than enough for financing expenses and still got borrowings to cover investing expenses, stronger liquidity ratio but still at low level now, higher gearing ratio at high level now, lower inventory can translate into sales slow down
First Support Price2.0
Second Support Price1.8

Research House
Maybank Target Price3.3 (2011-02-09)
RHB Target Price3.02 (2011-02-22)
OSK Target Price2.89 (2011-02-25)
CIMB Target Price3.74 (2011-05-27)
HLG Target Price3.11 (2011-05-27)
MIDF Target Price2.8 (2011-05-27)
Affin Target Price2.7 (2011-09-20)

Accounting Ratio
Return on Equity8.88%
Dividend Yield4.90%
Profit Margin7.71%
Tax Rate14.51%
Asset Turnover0.6558
Net Asset Value Per Share1.45
Net Tangible Asset per share1.44
Price/Net Tangible Asset Per Share1.74
Cash Per Share0.18
Liquidity Current Ratio1.4558
Liquidity Quick Ratio0.4012
Liquidity Cash Ratio0.1191
Gearing Debt to Equity Ratio1.572
Gearing Debt to Asset Ratio0.6104
Working capital per thousand Ringgit sale28.7%
Days to sell the inventory256
Days to collect the receivables65
Days to pay the payables34

My notes based on 2011 quarter 1 report (number in '000):-
- Lower revenue mainly attributable to lower export tonnages as a result of disruption in demand growth momentum in the international market on the back of political unrest in Middle East and North Africa region in addition to the earthquake and tsunami disaster in Japan

- Lower pbt mainly due to depressed international steel prices while recognising higher input costs

- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2011 Q2 result announced = 0.0477*4*0.8 = 0.1526, estimate PE on current price 2.11 = 13.15(DPS 0.1234)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2011 Q1 result announced = (0.04+0.0602)*2 = 0.2004, estimate highest/lowest PE = 14.3/10.96 (DPS 0.1234)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q3 result announced = 0.04*4 = 0.16, estimate highest/lowest PE = 19.31/16.69 (DPS 0.06)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q2 result announced = 0.0517*4 = 0.2068(0.0517 is average eps of Q110,Q409,Q308, due to steel price decreasing), estimate highest/lowest PE = 15.91/11.9 (DPS 0.06)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q1 result announced = 0.0591*4 = 0.2364, estimate highest/lowest PE = 12.39/9.31 (DPS 0.03)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2009 Q4 result announced = 0.048*4 = 0.192, estimate highest/lowest PE = 15.68/13.54 (DPS 0.03)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2009 Q3 result announced = 0.0682*4 = 0.2728, estimate highest/lowest PE = 12.17/8.69 (DPS 0.03)

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