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Friday, July 8, 2011

KLCI Stock - MAYBULK / 5077 - 2011 Quarter 1

Company Info
Market Capital (Capital Size)2,230,000,000 (Large)
Par ValueRM 0.25

My Analysis
Forecast P/E now(2.23-0.1)/0.1708 = 12.47 (Moderate)
Target Price2.39+0.1 = 2.49 (PE 14.0, EPS 0.1708, DPS 0.1)
DecisionNot interested unless revenue and profit increase more
Revenue increased 0.2% but lower than preceding year corresponding quarter 25.8%, eps decreased 22.2% and was second consecutive quarter decreasing but still higher than preceding year corresponding quarter 2.5%, almost like no cash generated from operating after deduct payables expenses but cash generated from disposal more than enough to cover financing expenses, stronger liquidity ratio at very strong level now, lower gearing ratio at low level now, all accounting ratio are good
First Support Price2.1
Second Support Price1.9

Research House
OSK Target Price2.21 (2011-05-26)
MIDF Target Price2.82 (2011-06-17)

Accounting Ratio
Return on Equity13.83%
Dividend Yield4.48%
Profit Margin62.98%
Tax Rate0.73%
Asset Turnover0.1905
Net Asset Value Per Share1.71
Net Tangible Asset per share1.71
Price/Net Tangible Asset Per Share1.32
Cash Per Share0.48
Liquidity Current Ratio5.3509
Liquidity Quick Ratio5.2459
Liquidity Cash Ratio4.7676
Gearing Debt to Equity Ratio0.1147
Gearing Debt to Asset Ratio0.1
Working capital per thousand Ringgit sale117.9%
Days to sell the inventory18
Days to collect the receivables47
Days to pay the payables99

My notes based on 2011 quarter 1 report (number in '000):-
- Lower revenue than FY10Q1 attributed to a 28% fall in the hire rates, the BDI averaged 1365 in the current quarter, a 54% decline from the 2984 average in the comparative quarter last year. The weaker market is reflected in the lower TCE/day achieved by dry bulk segment for Q1 2011 of US$21,398/day compared to Q1 last year’s US$30,260. The tanker market continued to remain weak and this has resulted in a 21% lower tanker TCE average of US$12,610/day against last year’s comparative average of US$15,938/day

- Higher other income than FY10Q1 primarily due to a RM8.4 million foreign exchange gain and RM4.6 million gain from the disposal of a tanker

- Lower profit from associate due to weak offshore services market

- Higher revenue than FY10Q4 attributed to the increased revenue days from ship-chartering segment

- The Group sold a tanker in February 2011 registering a gain of RM4.6 million, as compared to a gain of RM22.6 million posted in preceding quarter. This has resulted in a RM18.0 million q-o-q drop in the other operating income

- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2011 Q1 result announced = 0.0427(exclude RM10 million other income)*4 = 0.1708, estimate PE on current price 2.23 = 12.47(DPS 0.1)

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