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Sunday, July 3, 2011

KLCI Stock - UMCCA / 2593 - 2011 Quarter 4

Company Info
Market Capital (Capital Size)1,437,025,807 (Large)
Par ValueRM 1.00

My Analysis
Forecast P/E now(7.1-0.25)/0.45 = 15.22 (High)
Target Price6.30+0.25 = 6.55 (PE 14.0, EPS 0.45, DPS 0.25)
DecisionNot interested unless CPO price increase
Revenue increased 30.6% and also higher than preceding year corresponding quarter 25.8%, eps increased 21.5% and is second consecutive quarter increasing and also higher than preceding year corresponding quarter 59.6%, cash generated from operating more than enough to cover all expenses, stronger liquidity ratio at very strong level now, lower gearing ratio at low level now, all accounting ratio are good, crop production increasing, CPO price decreasing
First Support Price6.95
Second Support Price6.85

Research House
TA Target Price7.64 (2011-06-30)

Accounting Ratio
Return on Equity8.01%
Dividend Yield3.52%
Profit Margin47.18%
Tax Rate21.52%
Asset Turnover0.1836
Net Asset Value Per Share5.04
Net Tangible Asset per share4.95
Price/Net Tangible Asset Per Share1.41
Cash Per Share0.69
Liquidity Current Ratio8.2148
Liquidity Quick Ratio7.5263
Liquidity Cash Ratio6.5555
Gearing Debt to Equity Ratio0.1015
Gearing Debt to Asset Ratio0.0922
Working capital per thousand Ringgit sale75.1%
Days to sell the inventory50
Days to collect the receivables34
Days to pay the payables60

My notes based on 2011 quarter 4 report (number in '000):-
- The higher profits in the current quarter and twelve months to date was mainly due to higher CPO & PK prices

- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2011 Q4 result announced = 0.1125*4 = 0.45, estimate PE on current price 7.1 = 15.22 (DPS 0.25)

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