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Saturday, July 23, 2011

KLCI Stock - TENAGA / 5347 - 2011 Quarter 3

Company Info
Market Capital (Capital Size)34,195,422,764 (Very Large)
Par ValueRM 1.00

My Analysis
Forecast P/E now(6.27-0.195)/0.4424 = 13.73 (High)
Target Price5.31+0.195 = 5.50 (PE 12.0, EPS 0.4424, DPS 0.195)
DecisionNot interested unless coal price decrease
Revenue increased 3.5% and also higher than preceding year corresponding quarter 0.6%, eps decreased 169.8% and is second consecutive decreasing and also lower than preceding year corresponding quarter 139.7%, cash generated from operating is not enough to cover financing activities and some more got large investing expenses, used up 24.9% of Group cash, weaker liquidity ratio at low level now, lower gearing ratio but still at high level now, all accounting ratio are good, high coal price, income from foreign exchange still not stable
First Support Price5.95
Second Support Price5.6
Risk RatingHIGH

Research House
RHB Target Price7.5 (2011-01-18)
Citi Target Price7.9 (2011-05-31)
HwangDBS Target Price8.8 (2011-05-31)
AMMB Target Price6.6 (2011-06-13)
CIMB Target Price8.05 (2011-06-16)
MIDF Target Price7.98 (2011-06-21)
HLG Target Price7.91 (2011-07-12)
Kenanga Target Price7.93 (2011-07-18)
Maybank Target Price7.05 (2011-07-18)
ECM Target Price7.61 (2011-07-22)
OSK Target Price7.53 (2011-07-22)

Accounting Ratio
Return on Equity4.46%
Dividend Yield3.91%
Profit Margin-7.74%
Tax Rate-
Asset Turnover0.4223
Net Asset Value Per Share5.31
Net Tangible Asset per share5.31
Price/Net Tangible Asset Per Share1.23
Cash Per Share1.15
Liquidity Current Ratio1.4723
Liquidity Quick Ratio1.1722
Liquidity Cash Ratio0.6819
Gearing Debt to Equity Ratio1.5168
Gearing Debt to Asset Ratio0.6022
Working capital per thousand Ringgit sale14.1%
Days to sell the inventory34
Days to collect the receivables53
Days to pay the payables83

My notes based on 2011 quarter 2 report (number in '000):-
- Higher revenue mainly due to electricity demand grew

- Loss mainly due to higher generation costs from utilization of coal, oil and distillate, resulting from severe gas curtailment

- The average price of coal consumed was USD103 compared to USD85.1 per metric tonne in FY10Q3

- Price moving after 2011 Q3 result announced mainly base on technical analysis and ad-hos news, however if based on average eps of FY11Q1 & FY11Q2, 4Q eps = 0.1229*4*0.9 = 0.4424, estimate PE on current price 6.27 = 13.73(DPS 0.195)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2011 Q2 result announced = (0.1415+0.163)*2*1.05 = 0.6395, estimate highest/lowest PE = 10.96/9.01 (DPS 0.2)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2011 Q1 result announced = 0.7355*0.8 = 0.5884, estimate highest/lowest PE = 10.74/9.74 (DPS 0.21)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q4 result announced = 0.089*4 = 0.356, estimate highest/lowest PE = 24.21/21.88 (DPS 0.26)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q3 result announced = 0.71*1.05 = 0.7455 (5% increase adjustment), estimate highest/lowest PE = 12.22/11.21 (DPS 0.183)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q2 result announced = 0.2066+0.1859+0.1673+0.1506 = 0.71 (average 10% drop each quarter, coal price increasing but strong Ringgit offset some impact), estimate highest/lowest PE = 12.14/11.01 (DPS 0.183)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q1 result announced = 0.6484, estimate highest/lowest PE = 13.38/11.67 (DPS 0.163)

Coal price chart
- http://www.mongabay.com/images/commodities/charts/chart-coalaust.html
- http://www.globalcoal.com/

MYR/JPY chart

TENAGA latest news (English)

TENAGA latest news (Chinese)

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