KLCI Stock - MAYBULK / 5077 - 2011 Quarter 3

MALAYSIAN BULK CARRIERS BHD

Company Description

Malaysian Bulk Carriers Berhad is an investment holding company engaged in international shipping. It operates in three segments: Bulk Carriers, Tankers and Ship Management. As of February 28, 2011, the Company’s total fleet was 10 owned and five controlled bulk carriers and three owned tankers. Its bulk carriers are involved in the transportation of dry cargoes comprising major bulks, such as iron ore, coal (steaming and coking coals), grains and minor bulks like sugar, coke and fertilizers, among others. Apart from its own vessels, the Company also charters-in third party vessels to service contracts of affreightment commitments. The tankers are engaged primarily in the seaborne transportation of clean petroleum products, chemicals and vegetable oils. Ship management involves marine operations, technical management of vessels, ship supplies and crewing which are undertaken by PSM Perkapalan Sdn Bhd (PPSB), a wholly-owned subsidiary of MBC

Company Info

Listing Date	2003-12-02
Market Capital (Capital Size)	1,790,000,000 (Large)
Par Value	RM 0.25
Board	Main
Sector	Trading/Services
Major Industry	Transportation
Sub Industry	Shipping Services
Website	http://www.maybulk.com.my/

My Analysis

Forecast P/E now	(1.79-0.05)/0.0876 = 19.86 (High)
Target Price	1.23+0.05 = 1.28 (PE 14.0, EPS 0.0876, DPS 0.05)
Decision	Not interested unless stock price below or near to SMA20
Comment	Revenue decreased 36.3% and was second consecutive quarter decreasing and also lower than preceding year corresponding quarter 59.3%, eps decreased 98.2% and was fourth consecutive quarter decreasing (lower than preceding year corresponding quarter 99.5%), cash generated from operating after deduct payables expenses together with cash generated from disposal also not enough to cover financing expenses hence spent 20.3% of Group cash to cover, weaker liquidity ratio from strong to high level now, slightly lower gearing ratio at low level now, all accounting ratio still acceptable, affecting by lower charter rates
First Support Price	1.52
Second Support Price	1.39
Risk Rating	HIGH

Research House

OSK Target Price	2.21 (2011-05-26)
MIDF Target Price	2.82 (2011-06-17)
TA Target Price	1.1 (2011-12-29)

Accounting Ratio

Return on Equity	8.34%
Dividend Yield	5.59%
Profit Margin	2.39%
Tax Rate	13.11%
Asset Turnover	0.1521
Net Asset Value Per Share	1.63
Net Tangible Asset per share	1.63
Price/Net Tangible Asset Per Share	1.02
Cash Per Share	0.36
Liquidity Current Ratio	3.7501
Liquidity Quick Ratio	3.6647
Liquidity Cash Ratio	3.3601
Gearing Debt to Equity Ratio	0.1103
Gearing Debt to Asset Ratio	0.0965
Working capital per thousand Ringgit sale	104.7%
Days to sell the inventory	17
Days to collect the receivables	42
Days to pay the payables	120

Technical Analysis

SMA 20	1.486 (Uptrend 1 day)
SMA 50	1.626 (Downtrend)
SMA 100	1.742 (Downtrend)
SMA 200	2.063 (Downtrend)
MACD	-0.070478 (Uptrend 8 days)
MACD Histogram	0.025792 (Uptrend 5 days)

My notes based on 2011 quarter 3 report (number in '000):-
- Lower revenue and pbt is attributed to a 35% fall in the charter rates for the dry bulk segment and reduced revenue days from tanker segment

- The BDI’s 9 months average of 1,428 points for 2011 is a 51% decline against the comparative average of 2,885 in 2010. Against the backdrop of the weak dry bulk sector, the Group’s charter rates for our dry bulk carriers declined by 35% to USD17,491/day, compared to USD26,908/day for the same period last year

- The Baltic Clean Tanker Index (BCTI) remained flat from 2010 into the third quarter this year and this is reflected in our tanker revenue. Our tankers’ average TC rates for the 9 months of 2011 was USD12,257/day, compared to USD12,315/day for the same period last year. Revenue days from tanker segment were lower in this current 9 months due to the disposal of a tanker in February 2011, and the scheduled dockings of 3 tankers

- Gains on foreign exchange and disposal of vessel, offset by mark-to-market loss on investment, contributed a net “other operating income” of RM1.39 million for the 9 months of 2011. Finance cost decreased by 78% (or RM4.96 million) y-o-y as last year’s comparative includes provisions for early termination of a structured lease

- Compared to FY10Q3, is lower profit share from the Group’s jointly controlled entities in the dry bulk sector due to the falling dry bulk market

- But compared to FY11Q2, associate company POSH Group reported an increase as the employment rates for their vessels improved. Jointly controlled entity Progress Shipping Pte Ltd Group, took delivery of a new handysize at end June 2011 and this vessel has contributed positively to their results

- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2011 Q3 result announced = 0.0219*4 = 0.0876, estimate PE on current price 1.79 = 19.86(DPS 0.05)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2011 Q2 result announced = (0.0219+0.0427)*2 = 0.1292, estimate highest/lowest PE = 14.71/12 (DPS 0.1)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2011 Q1 result announced = 0.0427(exclude RM10 million other income)*4 = 0.1708, estimate highest/lowest PE = 13.23/10.42 (DPS 0.1)

MAYBULK latest news (English)

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Financial Quarter Summary

a_date	year	qrt	h_price	l_price	div	roe	c_roe	rev	c_rev	pbt	c_pbt	prof	c_prof	eps	c_eps	asset	liab	mino	equi	cfo	cfi	cff	cash	fcf	net	final	share	c_share	m_cap	date	prof_m	vat	asset_t	pe	navps	ntaps	p/ntaps	cps	l_cur	l_qui	l_cash	g_de	g_da	avg_w	inv_d	rec_d	pay_d
2011-11-23	2011	3	N/A	N/A	-	0.02%	4.45%	44379	198946	1060	77560	371	74916	0.0004	0.0749	1865137	180007	52868	1685130	57582	19274	139245	307564	76856	62389	245175	1000000	1000000	1660000	2011-09-30	2.39%	13.11%	0.1521	-	1.63	1.63	1.02	0.36	3.7501	3.6647	3.3601	0.1103	0.0965	104.7%	17	42	120
2011-08-24	2011	2	2.0	1.65	-	1.30%	4.43%	69653	154567	23020	76500	21887	74545	0.0219	0.0745	1869386	185496	56693	1683890	27907	19612	122668	306876	47519	75149	231727	1000000	1000000	2010000	2011-06-30	33.05%	2.02%	0.1863	-	1.63	1.63	1.23	0.36	4.1249	4.0546	3.5351	0.114	0.0992	91.6%	12	56	101
2011-05-25	2011	1	2.36	1.88	-	2.97%	2.97%	84914	84914	53480	53480	52658	52658	0.0527	0.0527	1966756	196592	56254	1770164	42	53357	10936	311763	53399	42463	354226	1000000	1000000	2260000	2011-03-31	62.98%	0.73%	0.1905	-	1.71	1.71	1.32	0.48	5.3509	5.2459	4.7676	0.1147	0.1	117.9%	18	47	99
2011-02-23	2010	4	2.89	2.26	0.1	3.89%	13.68%	84725	404250	69454	244368	67702	238368	0.0677	0.2384	1997254	254835	56634	1742419	221760	12737	306868	414537	209023	97845	316692	1000000	1000000	2760000	2010-12-31	81.98%	1.07%	0.2024	11.5787	1.69	1.69	1.63	0.44	3.7335	3.6611	3.0047	0.1512	0.1276	100.0%	17	40	166
2010-11-23	2010	3	3.0	2.7	-	5.13%	9.98%	109027	319525	88069	174914	87745	170666	0.0877	0.1707	2069635	360141	56248	1709494	176112	12833	207324	416332	163279	44045	372287	1000000	1000000	2870000	2010-09-30	80.78%	-	0.1943	-	1.65	1.65	1.74	0.44	3.6585	3.6005	3.0544	0.2178	0.174	95.7%	14	55	153
2010-08-24	2010	2	3.03	2.81	-	1.84%	4.83%	96067	210498	33369	86845	31560	82921	0.0316	0.0829	2220903	504778	73567	1716125	198389	72953	174059	436056	125436	48623	387433	1000000	1000000	2870000	2010-06-30	34.74%	1.58%	0.1761	-	1.64	1.64	1.75	0.52	2.4529	2.4257	2.1255	0.3073	0.2273	90.0%	10	68	321
2010-05-18	2010	1	3.06	2.8	-	2.75%	2.75%	114431	114431	53476	53476	51361	51361	0.0514	0.0514	2265996	399829	73576	1866167	50880	10281	16134	447281	40599	24465	471746	1000000	1000000	2990000	2010-03-31	46.73%	0.89%	0.1613	-	1.79	1.79	1.67	0.63	9.3316	9.2182	8.3748	0.223	0.1764	170.2%	13	63	106
2010-02-22	2009	4	3.26	2.93	0.15	4.75%	13.10%	82614	303707	90049	248257	88447	243799	0.0884	0.2438	2296186	435111	74001	1861075	114086	87185	382945	816473	26901	356044	460429	1000000	1000000	3080000	2009-12-31	109.00%	0.91%	0.1323	12.6334	1.79	1.79	1.72	0.61	7.7056	7.6302	6.7773	0.2435	0.1895	199.0%	11	92	134
2009-11-25	2009	3	3.3	2.89	-	3.85%	8.60%	98024	221093	70470	158208	69552	155352	0.0696	0.1554	2234405	427850	73215	1806555	39315	42666	377387	823262	3351	380738	442524	1000000	1000000	3160000	2009-09-30	71.89%	0.69%	0.1608	-	1.73	1.73	1.83	0.59	9.6299	9.5193	8.2758	0.2468	0.1915	170.4%	10	90	80
2009-08-26	2009	2	3.32	2.96	-	4.05%	4.89%	70393	123069	73481	87738	71097	85800	0.0711	0.0858	2167220	410913	74450	1756307	5919	36499	372945	823155	42418	415363	407792	1000000	1000000	3130000	2009-06-30	104.39%	1.40%	0.2204	-	1.68	1.68	1.86	0.54	11.6506	11.5309	10.2767	0.2443	0.1896	116.3%	7	50	47
2009-05-27	2009	1	3.42	3.02	-	0.70%	0.70%	52676	52676	14257	14257	14703	14703	0.0147	0.0147	2531515	433370	139839	2098145	45715	13548	5038	852803	32167	37205	815598	1000000	1000000	3320000	2009-03-31	27.07%	-	0.2344	-	1.96	1.96	1.69	0.93	17.9998	17.8789	16.5816	0.2213	0.1712	160.1%	6	45	46
2009-02-25	2008	4	3.4	2.72	0.3	0.16%	22.75%	138123	721158	4420	525750	3238	460862	0.0032	0.4609	2483705	457822	141945	2025883	342049	241037	417039	1121598	101012	316027	805571	1000000	1000000	2770000	2008-12-31	3.20%	-	0.2904	6.0105	1.88	1.88	1.47	0.94	10.127	10.0586	9.2598	0.243	0.1843	128.1%	6	38	81
2008-11-19	2008	3	2.82	2.13	-	7.25%	23.11%	216545	583035	194660	521330	143472	457624	0.1435	0.4576	2406212	426208	138450	1980004	280805	463210	410099	1083766	744015	333916	1417682	1000000	1000000	2310000	2008-09-30	89.89%	0.70%	0.3216	-	1.84	1.84	1.26	1.58	23.6293	23.4578	22.0726	0.2314	0.1771	209.9%	12	47	58
2008-08-20	2008	2	3.58	2.06	0.1	12.55%	17.76%	186026	366490	226972	326670	221895	314152	0.2219	0.3142	2170847	402262	87094	1768585	222239	254224	316123	1006625	476463	160340	1166965	1000000	1000000	3460000	2008-06-30	122.01%	0.23%	0.3322	-	1.68	1.68	2.06	1.36	22.3241	22.1844	20.3496	0.2392	0.1853	197.4%	10	41	59
2008-05-21	2008	1	4.34	3.36	-	5.11%	5.11%	180464	180464	99698	99698	92257	92257	0.0923	0.0923	2197856	392306	80837	1805550	77860	8265	8150	990054	69595	61445	1051499	1000000	1000000	4380000	2008-03-31	55.25%	2.75%	0.3099	-	1.72	1.72	2.55	1.24	24.8564	24.6719	20.0875	0.2275	0.1785	216.4%	14	65	65
2008-02-18	2007	4	4.58	3.62	0.3	8.79%	30.69%	190911	608142	160097	580295	156006	544592	0.1560	0.5446	2187708	413404	79256	1774304	458762	356906	435385	646663	815668	380283	1026946	1000000	1000000	4260000	2007-12-31	83.86%	0.15%	0.278	7.8224	1.7	1.7	2.51	1.24	21.1739	21.0798	17.8419	0.2439	0.189	229.7%	9	58	86
2007-11-22	2007	3	5.05	3.5	-	6.83%	22.98%	163676	417231	131627	420198	115467	388586	0.1155	0.3886	2105100	414458	79675	1690642	241014	268080	415660	681568	509094	93434	775002	1000000	1000000	4960000	2007-09-30	80.42%	0.24%	0.2495	-	1.61	1.61	3.08	0.92	15.961	15.8653	13.2722	0.2573	0.1969	197.1%	11	125	88
2007-08-20	2007	2	5.45	4.94	0.08	8.02%	16.92%	146138	253555	140559	288571	129465	273119	0.1295	0.2731	2021048	407297	61938	1613751	167607	16641	307938	676220	184248	123690	552530	1000000	1000000	3740000	2007-06-30	96.18%	0.22%	0.1789	-	1.55	1.55	2.41	0.85	13.2521	13.1697	10.3904	0.2625	0.2015	277.3%	18	122	169
2007-05-17	2007	1	N/A	N/A	-	8.25%	8.25%	107417	107417	148012	148012	143654	143654	0.1796	0.1796	2144090	403446	51568	1740644	72882	106080	64984	691186	178962	113978	805164	800000	800000	3056000	2007-03-31	137.79%	1.12%	0.1005	-	2.11	2.11	1.81	1.18	16.6506	16.5304	12.379	0.2389	0.1882	554.9%	39	169	247
2007-02-27	2006	4	N/A	N/A	0.3	5.77%	18.70%	107989	441600	95766	313487	92775	300565	0.1160	0.3757	2088395	481244	1607151	1607151	270380	120086	183311	725811	150294	33017	692794	800000	800000	2048000	2006-12-31	88.68%	0.14%	0.0517	6.8138	N/A	N/A	N/A	1.09	7.0969	7.0541	5.9967	N/A	0.2304	820.0%	55	397	631

Financial Quarter Balance Sheet

year	qrt	Fixed assets (A-0)	Investment in associated companies (A-0)	Investment in jointly controlled entity (A-0)	Leasehold property (A-0)	Cash and cash equivalents (A-1)	Consumable stores, at cost (A-1)	Current asset classified as held for sales (A-1)	Deposits with licensed banks (A-1)	Other investments (A-1)	Other receivables, deposits and prepayments (A-1)	Trade receivables (A-1)	Deferred tax liabilities (L-0)	Loans & borrowings (L-0)	Loans & borrowings (L-1)	Other payables (L-1)	Provision for taxation (L-1)	Minority interest (M-1)
2011	3	535254	747920	176965	-	102305	9213	-	142870	117708	10157	22745	-	72009	42476	65036	486	52868
2011	2	540565	734590	172941	-	82412	7183	-	149315	129319	13356	39705	-	83363	42364	58777	992	56693
2011	1	548514	737221	137747	-	67459	10661	-	286767	129832	15743	32812	-	95062	42532	58309	689	56254
2010	4	562391	746052	136921	-	19215	10699	52863	297477	127476	16947	27213	-	107013	43148	104050	624	56634
2010	3	607943	764036	150350	17652	36168	8404	18386	336119	69905	26167	34505	-	215368	50432	93891	450	56248
2010	2	666139	790908	151355	18025	55345	6609	-	332088	127680	40991	31763	-	262425	36761	204768	824	73567
2010	1	604857	799506	146758	18187	106646	8464	-	365100	153510	41720	21248	-	325170	6876	66998	785	73576
2009	4	645975	815654	139948	-	53711	6797	-	406718	150497	48025	28861	-	344968	7695	81546	902	74001
2009	3	567158	965458	-	18628	109786	7845	-	332738	144575	63608	24609	-	356908	7666	62176	1100	73215
2009	2	575663	965088	-	18485	16631	6245	-	391161	128498	46477	18972	-	358728	7569	42933	1683	74450
2009	1	612913	893843	-	18893	34092	6760	-	781506	111013	58945	13550	-	377488	7790	48092	-	139839
2008	4	581858	858576	-	18548	13875	6924	5595	791696	131401	49263	25969	-	356635	7346	90205	3636	141945
2008	3	635327	56092	-	18539	18157	12309	-	1399525	166824	52937	46502	1338	353084	7146	60789	3851	138450
2008	2	607860	54706	-	18256	2516	9325	42245	1164449	191267	44628	35595	1338	334179	7786	56285	2674	87094
2008	1	593013	50996	-	18196	5129	11395	162816	1046370	189525	72153	48263	1338	329187	6416	52351	3014	80837
2007	4	655175	47605	-	18508	38163	6517	127999	988783	208716	53444	42798	1338	342810	6589	60845	1822	79256
2007	3	952670	47835	-	-	49425	6624	-	725577	143517	132416	47036	514	344738	17631	50818	757	79675
2007	2	893027	43733	-	-	5689	6741	106138	546841	297610	92923	28346	513	324964	17085	63619	1116	61938
2007	1	832563	39968	-	-	4749	9185	217227	800415	140185	84446	15352	513	326566	17129	58189	1049	51568
2006	4	1001072	36397	-	20240	16123	6216	36062	676671	178103	84363	33148	-	336014	73302	71451	477	1607151

Financial Quarter Income Statement

year	qrt	Revenue	Income tax expense	Cost of sales	Finance/interest costs	Other income	Administrative/Operating expenses	Minority interest	Share of profit/ (loss) of associates	Share of net profit of jointly controlled entity
2011	3	44379	139	36087	427	17841	3885	550	11387	3534
2011	2	69653	466	49792	450	5799	4678	667	264	2224
2011	1	84914	388	45593	513	13441	4096	434	1848	3479
2010	4	84725	743	48067	636	35871	6187	1009	490	3258
2010	3	109027	53	49228	1396	25297	5256	377	8774	851
2010	2	96067	528	51946	286	19374	4092	1281	4244	8184
2010	1	114431	478	60220	5241	3825	4308	1637	4664	7975
2009	4	82614	822	43211	1853	39188	5739	780	11472	7578
2009	3	98024	489	59070	3616	16638	4178	429	14072	8600
2009	2	70393	1028	50885	4413	31311	4062	1356	22934	8203
2009	1	52676	1794	50516	4055	3608	4319	1348	15467	8612
2008	4	138123	542	105832	7989	26883	5732	1724	12733	-
2008	3	216545	1363	103179	6059	93130	6973	49825	1196	-
2008	2	186026	518	99274	6501	149472	6303	4559	3552	-
2008	1	180464	2737	72706	6633	3823	8943	4704	3693	-
2007	4	190911	239	78458	7293	60105	8850	3852	3682	-
2007	3	163676	315	66935	6379	44761	7411	15845	3915	-
2007	2	146138	310	45746	3141	45310	6006	10784	4004	-
2007	1	107417	1665	37542	4999	86447	6972	2693	3661	-
2006	4	107989	130	36501	24920	50084	4809	2861	3923	-

Financial Quarter Segments Revenue

year	qrt	Building services	Investment holding and others	Shipping Bulkers	Shipping Tankers	Ship brokerage & management
2011	3	-	-	35922	6687	2551
2011	2	-	-	59663	8038	1952
2011	1	-	-	72636	10385	1893
2010	4	-	-	70451	12264	2010
2010	3	-	-	95351	11552	2124
2010	2	-	-	85601	8194	2272
2010	1	-	-	97844	13968	2619
2009	4	-	-	70288	10390	1936
2009	3	-	-	80606	15517	1901
2009	2	-	-	54246	13303	2844
2009	1	-	-	36810	15196	670
2008	4	-	-	124626	11100	2397
2008	3	-	-	190462	23988	1360
2008	2	-	-	167701	16489	2157
2008	1	-	-	155642	22689	2547
2007	4	-	-	163900	24814	2509
2007	3	-	-	131417	29305	3268
2007	2	-	-	108141	36133	2180
2007	1	-	-	79723	26011	2023
2006	4	-	-	82701	23772	1898

Financial Quarter Segments Profit

year	qrt	Building services	Investment holding and others	Shipping Bulkers	Shipping Tankers	Ship brokerage & management
2011	3	17408	-	6855	3303	172
2011	2	4263	-	21378	5516	610
2011	1	-	5378	36477	5750	698
2010	4	-	5264	45387	978	16075
2010	3	-	-	60720	178	18577
2010	2	-	-	43107	21	24013
2010	1	-	-	45644	5305	5747
2009	4	-	-	42529	3999	24485
2009	3	-	-	30548	6603	12731
2009	2	-	-	15088	2287	28129
2009	1	-	-	105	4583	12544
2008	4	-	-	29665	1668	37132
2008	3	-	-	251518	14452	75105
2008	2	-	-	176317	40849	4538
2008	1	-	-	98451	13080	19614
2007	4	-	-	103046	45275	6819
2007	3	-	-	71259	45846	8132
2007	2	-	-	79155	50129	1581
2007	1	-	-	125435	12316	1231
2006	4	-	-	58273	10890	36465

Short form reference
a_date = announcement date, yr = financial year end, qrt = quarter
h_price = stock highest price during the quarter, l_price = stock lowest price during the quarter
div = dividend recommend or declare in the quarter, roe = return on equity
c_roe = cumulative of return on equity during the financial year
rev = revenue in the current quarter, c_rev = cumulative of revenue during the financial year
pbt = profit before tax in the current quarter, c_pbt = cumulative of profit before tax during the financial year
eps = earnings per share in the current quarter, c_eps = cumulative of earnings per share during the financial year
asset = total asset, liab = total liability, mino = minority interest, equi = total equity
cfo = net cash flow from operating activities, cfi = net cash flow from investing activities
cff = net cash flow from financing activities, cash = cash and cash equivalents as at beginning of financial year
final = cash and cash equivalents as at current financial period ended
share = diluted/basic weighted average number of ordinary shares
c_share = cumulative of diluted/basic weighted average number of ordinary shares during the financial year
m_cap = market capital at announcement date of quarterly report, date = current financial period ended date
prof_m = profit margin, vat = income tax rate, pe = price earning per share ratio of recent four quarter
navps = net asset value per share, ntaps = net tangible asset per share, cps = cash per share
l_cur = liquidity current ratio, l_qui = liquidity quick ratio, l_cash = liquidity cash ratio
g_de = gearing debt to equity ratio, g_da = gearing debt to assets ratio
avg_w = working capital per thousand Ringgit sale
inv_d = days to sell the inventory, rec_d = days to collect the receivables
pay_d = days to pay the payables



6-Months Historical Chart from shareinvestor.com

CURRENT

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●CHANGES IN SHAREHOLDING
●ANNUAL REPORTS

HISTORICAL

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●CHANGES IN SHAREHOLDING

ARCHIVES

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●CHANGES IN SHAREHOLDING

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1-Years Historical Chart from shareinvestor.com

5-Years Historical Chart from shareinvestor.com