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Saturday, January 7, 2012

KLCI Stock - MAYBULK / 5077 - 2011 Quarter 3

Company Info
Market Capital (Capital Size)1,790,000,000 (Large)
Par ValueRM 0.25

My Analysis
Forecast P/E now(1.79-0.05)/0.0876 = 19.86 (High)
Target Price1.23+0.05 = 1.28 (PE 14.0, EPS 0.0876, DPS 0.05)
DecisionNot interested unless stock price below or near to SMA20
Revenue decreased 36.3% and was second consecutive quarter decreasing and also lower than preceding year corresponding quarter 59.3%, eps decreased 98.2% and was fourth consecutive quarter decreasing (lower than preceding year corresponding quarter 99.5%), cash generated from operating after deduct payables expenses together with cash generated from disposal also not enough to cover financing expenses hence spent 20.3% of Group cash to cover, weaker liquidity ratio from strong to high level now, slightly lower gearing ratio at low level now, all accounting ratio still acceptable, affecting by lower charter rates
First Support Price1.52
Second Support Price1.39
Risk RatingHIGH

Research House
OSK Target Price2.21 (2011-05-26)
MIDF Target Price2.82 (2011-06-17)
TA Target Price1.1 (2011-12-29)

Accounting Ratio
Return on Equity8.34%
Dividend Yield5.59%
Profit Margin2.39%
Tax Rate13.11%
Asset Turnover0.1521
Net Asset Value Per Share1.63
Net Tangible Asset per share1.63
Price/Net Tangible Asset Per Share1.02
Cash Per Share0.36
Liquidity Current Ratio3.7501
Liquidity Quick Ratio3.6647
Liquidity Cash Ratio3.3601
Gearing Debt to Equity Ratio0.1103
Gearing Debt to Asset Ratio0.0965
Working capital per thousand Ringgit sale104.7%
Days to sell the inventory17
Days to collect the receivables42
Days to pay the payables120

Technical Analysis
SMA 201.486 (Uptrend 1 day)
SMA 501.626 (Downtrend)
SMA 1001.742 (Downtrend)
SMA 2002.063 (Downtrend)
MACD-0.070478 (Uptrend 8 days)
MACD Histogram0.025792 (Uptrend 5 days)

My notes based on 2011 quarter 3 report (number in '000):-
- Lower revenue and pbt is attributed to a 35% fall in the charter rates for the dry bulk segment and reduced revenue days from tanker segment

- The BDI’s 9 months average of 1,428 points for 2011 is a 51% decline against the comparative average of 2,885 in 2010. Against the backdrop of the weak dry bulk sector, the Group’s charter rates for our dry bulk carriers declined by 35% to USD17,491/day, compared to USD26,908/day for the same period last year

- The Baltic Clean Tanker Index (BCTI) remained flat from 2010 into the third quarter this year and this is reflected in our tanker revenue. Our tankers’ average TC rates for the 9 months of 2011 was USD12,257/day, compared to USD12,315/day for the same period last year. Revenue days from tanker segment were lower in this current 9 months due to the disposal of a tanker in February 2011, and the scheduled dockings of 3 tankers

- Gains on foreign exchange and disposal of vessel, offset by mark-to-market loss on investment, contributed a net “other operating income” of RM1.39 million for the 9 months of 2011. Finance cost decreased by 78% (or RM4.96 million) y-o-y as last year’s comparative includes provisions for early termination of a structured lease

- Compared to FY10Q3, is lower profit share from the Group’s jointly controlled entities in the dry bulk sector due to the falling dry bulk market

- But compared to FY11Q2, associate company POSH Group reported an increase as the employment rates for their vessels improved. Jointly controlled entity Progress Shipping Pte Ltd Group, took delivery of a new handysize at end June 2011 and this vessel has contributed positively to their results

- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2011 Q3 result announced = 0.0219*4 = 0.0876, estimate PE on current price 1.79 = 19.86(DPS 0.05)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2011 Q2 result announced = (0.0219+0.0427)*2 = 0.1292, estimate highest/lowest PE = 14.71/12 (DPS 0.1)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2011 Q1 result announced = 0.0427(exclude RM10 million other income)*4 = 0.1708, estimate highest/lowest PE = 13.23/10.42 (DPS 0.1)

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