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Thursday, January 5, 2012

KLCI Stock - MPHB / 3859 - 2011 Quarter 3

Company Info
Market Capital (Capital Size)3,982,563,771 (Large)
Par ValueRM 1.00

My Analysis
Forecast P/E now(2.77-0.1)/0.298 = 8.96 (Moderate)
Target Price2.98+0.1 = 3.08 (PE 10.0, EPS 0.298, DPS 0.1)
DecisionBUY if stock price below or near to SMA20
Comment
Revenue decreased 5% and was second consecutive quarter decreasing and also lower than preceding year corresponding quarter 2.8%, eps decreased 18.4% and was second consecutive quarter decreasing and also lower than preceding year corresponding quarter 35.5%, cash generated from operating more than enough to cover dividend payout however still increased borrowing so that can cover investing expenses, slightly weaker liquidity ratio at moderate level now, higher gearing ratio at high level now, all accounting ratio are good, most division recorded lower result
First Support Price2.7
Second Support Price2.55
Risk RatingMODERATE

Research House
AMMB Target Price3.7 (2011-07-11)
HwangDBS Target Price3.5 (2011-11-10)
Maybank Target Price3.64 (2011-11-24)
RHB Target Price3.1 (2011-12-07)

Accounting Ratio
Return on Equity9.98%
Dividend Yield3.61%
Profit Margin12.09%
Tax Rate35.18%
Asset Turnover0.4858
Net Asset Value Per Share2.37
Net Tangible Asset per share0.0
Price/Net Tangible Asset Per Share0.0
Cash Per Share0.73
Liquidity Current Ratio2.5049
Liquidity Quick Ratio1.9131
Liquidity Cash Ratio1.0789
Gearing Debt to Equity Ratio1.4138
Gearing Debt to Asset Ratio0.5613
Working capital per thousand Ringgit sale35.1%
Days to sell the inventory60
Days to collect the receivables43
Days to pay the payables90

Technical Analysis
SMA 202.686 (Uptrend 13 days)
SMA 502.646 (Uptrend)
SMA 1002.594 (Same)
SMA 2002.731 (Uptrend)
MACD0.032803 (Uptrend 3 days)
MACD Histogram0.007926 (Uptrend 57 days)

My notes based on 2011 quarter 3 report (number in '000):-
- Lower revenue and pbt mainly due to less draws and higher payout ratio

- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2011 Q3 result announced = 0.0745*4 = 0.298(eps after acquire 47% remaining Magnum), estimate PE on current price 2.77 = 8.96(DPS 0.1)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2011 Q2 result announced = 0.0949*4*1.1 = 0.4176(eps after acquire 47% remaining Magnum), estimate highest/lowest PE = 6.47/4.89 (DPS 0.1)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q4 result announced = 0.164*4 = 0.656(eps after acquire 49% remaining Magnum), estimate highest/lowest PE = 4.73/3.67 (DPS 0.1)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q4 result announced = 0.282, estimate highest/lowest PE = 11.24/8.26 (DPS 0.1)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q3 result announced = 0.1368*2 = 0.2736, estimate highest/lowest PE = 9.76/7.38 (DPS 0.1)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q2 result announced = 0.0563*4*0.95 = 0.2139, estimate highest/lowest PE = 10.52/9.35 (DPS 0.05)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q1 result announced = 0.22*1.05 = 0.231 (5% grow adjustment from 0.22 due to positive result), estimate highest/lowest PE = 9.39/7.84 (DPS 0.09)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2009 Q4 result announced = 0.05*4 = 0.2*1.1 = 0.22 (10% grow from 0.2, due to 4D Jackpot game and current economic environment, result exclude other income), estimate highest/lowest PE = 11.05/8.27 (DPS 0.1, correction to last quarter estimated)

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