KLCI Stock - PETGAS / 6033 - 2011 Quarter 6

Company Info

Market Capital (Capital Size)	30,432,896,852 (Very Large)
Par Value	RM 1.00

My Analysis

Forecast P/E now	(15.38-0.5)/0.7448 = 19.98 (High)
Target Price	14.15+0.5 = 14.65 (PE 19.0, EPS 0.7448, DPS 0.5)
Decision	Not interested unless profit margin improve in next quarter
Comment	Revenue increased 1.2% and was second consecutive quarter increasing and also higher than preceding year corresponding quarter 6.8%, eps decreased 9.4% and also lower than preceding year corresponding quarter 10%, cash generated from operating enough for financing expenses but investing expenses still spent 11% of Group cash, lower liquidity ratio but still at very strong level now, slightly higher gearing ratio at below moderate level now, all accounting ratio are good, affected by cost increase
First Support Price	14.8
Second Support Price	14.0
Risk Rating	MODERATE

Research House

Maybank Target Price	14.1 (2010-12-01)
TA Target Price	14.2 (2011-02-23)
OSK Target Price	14 (2011-07-25)
ECM Target Price	14.14 (2011-08-18)
Maybank Target Price	7.5 (2011-11-24)
MIDF Target Price	15.6 (2011-12-27)
AMMB Target Price	15.3 (2012-01-06)
RHB Target Price	16.39 (2012-01-09)
HwangDBS Target Price	16.9 (2012-01-13)

Accounting Ratio

Return on Equity	8.58%
Dividend Yield	3.25%
Profit Margin	49.37%
Tax Rate	23.53%
Asset Turnover	0.3461
Net Asset Value Per Share	4.3
Net Tangible Asset per share	4.3
Price/Net Tangible Asset Per Share	3.08
Cash Per Share	1.37
Liquidity Current Ratio	8.9134
Liquidity Quick Ratio	8.6275
Liquidity Cash Ratio	7.4724
Gearing Debt to Equity Ratio	0.2223
Gearing Debt to Asset Ratio	0.1805
Working capital per thousand Ringgit sale	79.0%
Days to sell the inventory	18
Days to collect the receivables	42
Days to pay the payables	36

Technical Analysis

SMA 20	14.846 (Uptrend 33 days)
SMA 50	13.868 (Uptrend)
SMA 100	13.386 (Uptrend)
SMA 200	12.51 (Uptrend)
MACD	0.636154 (Uptrend 32 days)
MACD Histogram	0.124727 (Uptrend 32 days)

My notes based on 2011 quarter 6 report (number in '000):-
- Higher revenue was due to higher gas processing revenue and utilities sales

- Lower pbt was mainly due to higher cost of revenue and other expenses

- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2011 Q6 result announced = (0.1954+0.177)*2 = 0.7448, estimate PE on current price 15.38 = 19.98(DPS 0.5)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2011 Q5 result announced = 0.1954*4 = 0.7816, estimate highest/lowest PE = 18.14/15.1 (DPS 0.5)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2011 Q4 result announced = 0.1348*4 = 0.5392, estimate highest/lowest PE = 25.04/19.84 (DPS 0.5)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2011 Q2 result announced = 0.6266, estimate highest/lowest PE = 17.65/16.41 (DPS 0.5)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2011 Q1 result announced = 0.5331*0.95 = 0.5064, estimate highest/lowest PE = 25.63/19.31 (DPS 0.5)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q4 result announced = 0.4612(3% dropped from 0.4755), estimate highest/lowest PE = 21.47/19.8 (DPS 0.5)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q3 result announced = 0.5(0.37+0.13), estimate highest/lowest PE = 19.2/18.12 (DPS 0.5)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q2 result announced = 0.47, estimate highest/lowest PE = 20.21/19.26 (DPS 0.5)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q1 result announced = 0.47, estimate highest/lowest PE = 20.21/19.47 (DPS 0.5)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2009 Q4 result announced = 0.47, estimate highest/lowest PE = 21.06/19.15 (DPS 0.5)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2009 Q3 result announced = 0.47, estimate highest/lowest PE = 20.21/18.94 (DPS 0.05)

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