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Saturday, January 21, 2012

KLCI Stock - UMW / 4588 - 2011 Quarter 3


Company Info 
Market Capital (Capital Size)8,294,886,917 (Very Large)
Par ValueRM 0.50

My Analysis 
Forecast P/E now(7.1-0.165)/0.5412 = 12.81 (Moderate)
Target Price7.58+0.165 = 7.74 (PE 14.0, EPS 0.5412, DPS 0.165)
DecisionBUY if Bolinger upper band open or stock price near to SMA20 and buying volume stronger than selling
Comment
Revenue increased 16.6% and also higher than preceding year corresponding quarter 19.6%, eps increased 28.9% and also higher than preceding year coorresponding quarter 10.7%, cash generated from operating enough to cover all expenses, weaker liquidity ratio at low level now, higher gearing ratio at high level now, all accounting ratio are good, Automotive and Equipment division largely growth
First Support Price6.8
Second Support Price6.3
Risk RatingMODERATE

Research House
BIMB Target Price8.11 (2011-01-13)
CIMB Target Price8 (2011-07-19)
HwangDBS Target Price8.55 (2011-07-19)
AMMB Target Price6.5 (2011-07-29)
Kenanga Target Price7.06 (2011-08-22)
TA Target Price6.36 (2011-08-22)
MIDF Target Price7 (2011-09-09)
OSK Target Price6.29 (2011-10-12)
ECM Target Price7 (2011-11-25)
UOB Target Price6.9 (2011-11-25)
Maybank Target Price6.1 (2011-12-23)
Affin Target Price7.25 (2012-01-12)
RHB Target Price6.2 (2012-01-18)

Accounting Ratio 
Return on Equity8.55%
Dividend Yield4.23%
Profit Margin11.22%
Tax Rate27.47%
Asset Turnover1.279
Net Asset Value Per Share3.7
Net Tangible Asset per share3.48
Price/Net Tangible Asset Per Share1.94
Cash Per Share2.28
Liquidity Current Ratio1.7738
Liquidity Quick Ratio1.2879
Liquidity Cash Ratio0.8831
Gearing Debt to Equity Ratio1.172
Gearing Debt to Asset Ratio0.4781
Working capital per thousand Ringgit sale17.2%
Days to sell the inventory43
Days to collect the receivables23
Days to pay the payables60

Technical Analysis 
SMA 206.834 (Uptrend 6 days)
SMA 506.443 (Uptrend)
SMA 1006.418 (Uptrend)
SMA 2006.512 (Uptrend)
MACD0.095778 (Uptrend 4 days)
MACD Histogram0.053385 (Uptrend 18 days)

My notes based on 2011 quarter 3 report (number in '000):-
- Higher revenue due to swift production of Automotive and Equipment segments recovery from the impact of the Japan tsunami, premium jack-up rigs, Naga 2 and Naga 3, coupled with the higher day-rate from Naga 1, a semi-submersible rig, contributed to the higher revenue in the oil & gas segment

- Higher pbt due to higher sales of both Toyota and Perodua vehicles and favourable exchange rate for the USD

- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q3 result announced = (0.1126+0.1451)*2*1.05 = 0.5412, estimate PE on current price 7.1 = 12.81(DPS 0.165)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q2 result announced = (0.1126+0.1306)*2 = 0.4864, estimate highest/lowest PE = 18.16/12.28 (DPS 0.165)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q1 result announced = 0.1306*4*1.1 = 0.5746, estimate highest/lowest PE = 12.62/11.23 (DPS 0.3)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q4 result announced = 0.4486*1.1 = 0.4935, estimate highest/lowest PE = 14.45/13.48 (DPS 0.3)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q3 result announced = 0.1311*4*0.9 = 0.472, estimate highest/lowest PE = 15.65/13.57 (DPS 0.335)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q2 result announced = 0.1517*4*0.9 = 0.5461(0.1517 is average of recent 2Q eps, deduct 10% risk adjustment), estimate highest/lowest PE = 12.43/11.3 (DPS 0.24)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q1 result announced = 0.1034*4 = 0.4136(0.1034 is average of recent 2Q eps), estimate highest/lowest PE = 15.11/14.24 (DPS 0.2)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2009 Q4 result announced = 0.1016*4 = 0.4064(0.1016 is average of recent 2Q eps), estimate highest/lowest PE = 15.97/14.54 (DPS 0.2)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2009 Q3 result announced = 0.0927*4 = 0.3708(0.0927 is average of recent 2Q eps), estimate highest/lowest PE = 16.94/15.29 (DPS 0.23)

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1 comment:

Polite Market said...

Hi, may u ask you a question. I put the FaceBook "LIKE" script in my blog, but there is no photo.

The Facebook Social Plugin got two script, i copied it, went to my blog and add two gadget (HTML) and paste it there.

Now got Facebook LIKE button, but there is no photo. You have any idea on this? thanks

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