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Friday, January 6, 2012

KLCI Stock - PETDAG / 5681 - 2011 Quarter 6

Company Info
Market Capital (Capital Size)16,988,063,400 (Very Large)
Par ValueRM 1.00

My Analysis
Forecast P/E now(17.1-0.8)/0.8712 = 18.71 (Moderate)
Target Price16.55+0.8 = 17.35 (PE 19.0, EPS 0.8712, DPS 0.8)
DecisionBUY if MACD moving back to uptrend
Comment
Revenue decreased 3.1% but higher than preceding year corresponding quarter 32.9%, eps increased 7.3% and also higher than preceding year corresponding quarter 9%, no cash generated from operating and got generated cash from financing activities and still used 35.3% of Group cash to cover others expenses, weaker liquidity ratio at low level now, higher gearing ratio at above moderate level now, all accounting ratio are good, benefit from crude oil price increasing
First Support Price16.8
Second Support Price16.0
Risk RatingMODERATE

Research House
TA Target Price14.4 (2011-02-17)
HwangDBS Target Price12.75 (2011-05-25)
CIMB Target Price21.6 (2011-08-11)

Accounting Ratio
Return on Equity9.19%
Dividend Yield3.80%
Profit Margin4.11%
Tax Rate24.86%
Asset Turnover3.0837
Net Asset Value Per Share4.7
Net Tangible Asset per share4.7
Price/Net Tangible Asset Per Share3.48
Cash Per Share0.67
Liquidity Current Ratio1.263
Liquidity Quick Ratio1.0269
Liquidity Cash Ratio0.1724
Gearing Debt to Equity Ratio0.878
Gearing Debt to Asset Ratio0.4655
Working capital per thousand Ringgit sale3.7%
Days to sell the inventory13
Days to collect the receivables44
Days to pay the payables47

Technical Analysis
SMA 2017.208 (Uptrend 2 days)
SMA 5016.613 (Uptrend)
SMA 10016.599 (Uptrend)
SMA 20016 (Uptrend)
MACD0.271052 (Downtrend 3 days)
MACD Histogram0.027988 (Uptrend 39 days)

My notes based on 2011 quarter 6 report (number in '000):-
- Higher revenue than FY11Q2 resulted from higher average product selling prices and higher sales volume

- Lower revenue than FY11Q5 was due to lower average product selling prices and lower sales volume

- Higher pbt mainly due to higher gross profit

- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2011 Q6 result announced = 0.4356*2 = 0.8712, estimate PE on current price 17.1 = 18.71(DPS 0.85)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2011 Q5 result announced = (0.2101+0.23)*2 = 0.8802, estimate highest/lowest PE = 19.94/16.64 (DPS 0.85)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2011 Q4 result announced = 0.23*4*1.05 = 0.966, estimate highest/lowest PE = 18.69/15.06 (DPS 0.85)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2011 Q2 result announced = 0.2068*4*1.03 = 0.852, estimate highest/lowest PE = 13.79/11.98 (DPS 0.85)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2011 Q1 result announced = 0.7579*1.05 = 0.7958, estimate highest/lowest PE = 14.2/11.96 (DPS 0.6)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q4 result announced = 0.7579*0.95 = 0.72(5% drop due to lower gross profit compared to the preceding quarter), estimate highest/lowest PE = 13.81/11.26 (DPS 0.6)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q3 result announced = 0.1885*4 = 0.754, estimate highest/lowest PE = 11.63/10.84 (DPS 0.48)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q2 result announced = 0.2005*4 = 0.802, estimate highest/lowest PE = 10.66/10.06 (DPS 0.48)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q1 result announced = 0.2067*4 = 0.8268, estimate highest/lowest PE = 10.52/9.65 (DPS 0.45)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2009 Q4 result announced = 0.1735*4 = 0.694, estimate highest/lowest PE = 11.84/10.73 (DPS 0.45)

PETDAG latest news (English)

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