Company Info
| Market Capital (Capital Size) | 26,604,206,893 (Very Large) |
| Par Value | RM 1.00 |
My Analysis
| Forecast P/E now | (5.96-0.15)/0.3259 = 17.83 (Moderate) |
| Target Price | 6.52+0.15 = 6.67 (PE 20.0, EPS 0.3259, DPS 0.15) |
| Decision | Not interested unless stock price and SMA20 sustain above 5.6 or stock price at new lowest point |
| Comment | Revenue decreased 13% and also lower than preceding year corresponding quarter 15.1%, eps increased 18.1% and was second consecutive quarter increasing but still lower than preceding year corresponding quarter 61.4%, cash generated from operating and financing more than enough for investing expenses, weaker liquidity ratio at low level now, higher gearing ratio at above moderate level now, all accounting ratio still acceptable, exit Liner business which going to offset the division loss in the future |
| First Support Price | 5.6 |
| Second Support Price | 5.35 |
| Risk Rating | HIGH |
Research House
| AMMB Target Price | 7.3 (2011-03-25) |
| RHB Target Price | 8.47 (2011-07-11) |
| CIMB Target Price | 5.75 (2011-08-19) |
| Kenanga Target Price | 6.72 (2011-08-19) |
| MIDF Target Price | 5.5 (2011-09-28) |
| HLG Target Price | 5.57 (2011-11-25) |
| HwangDBS Target Price | 6.6 (2011-11-25) |
| Maybank Target Price | 5.7 (2011-11-25) |
| OSK Target Price | 7.23 (2011-12-14) |
Accounting Ratio
| Return on Equity | 1.09% |
| Dividend Yield | 1.68% |
| Profit Margin | 8.76% |
| Tax Rate | 13.69% |
| Asset Turnover | 0.2752 |
| Net Asset Value Per Share | 5.11 |
| Net Tangible Asset per share | 4.92 |
| Price/Net Tangible Asset Per Share | 1.25 |
| Cash Per Share | 0.95 |
| Liquidity Current Ratio | 1.1133 |
| Liquidity Quick Ratio | 1.0434 |
| Liquidity Cash Ratio | 0.5955 |
| Gearing Debt to Equity Ratio | 0.7909 |
| Gearing Debt to Asset Ratio | 0.4285 |
| Working capital per thousand Ringgit sale | 7.0% |
| Days to sell the inventory | 16 |
| Days to collect the receivables | 99 |
| Days to pay the payables | 132 |
Technical Analysis
| SMA 20 | 5.58 (Downtrend 33 days) |
| SMA 50 | 6.128 (Downtrend) |
| SMA 100 | 6.325 (Downtrend) |
| SMA 200 | 6.824 (Downtrend) |
| MACD | -0.243613 (Uptrend 5 days) |
| MACD Histogram | 0.021958 (Uptrend 2 days) |
My notes based on 2011 quarter 6 report (number in '000):-
- Lower revenue mainly due to novation of certain Heavy Engineering projects to a jointly controlled entity (if exclude the novation revenue is RM2474.4 million, still lower due to decrease in Liner business from lower liftings)
- Lower pbt than FY11Q2 due to depressed aframax freight rates in Petroleum business, lower liftings in Liner business and high bunker costs and impairment provisions of RM27.2 million
- Higher pbt than FY11Q5 due to improved performance in Heavy Engineering
- Exit Liner business operations which going to pay one-off costs approximately USD400 million in the coming quarter
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2011 Q6 result announced = 363732/4464000*4 = 0.3259(exclude USD400 million costs), estimate PE on current price 5.96 = 17.83(DPS 0.15)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2011 Q5 result announced = 0.3(roe ~6% per year due to an improvement from preceding quarter), estimate highest/lowest PE = 23.5/15.5 (DPS 0.25)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2011 Q3 result announced = 0.05*4 = 0.2, estimate highest/lowest PE = 39.2/34.35 (DPS 0.35)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2011 Q2 result announced = 0.0691*4 = 0.2764(profit margin 10% per quarter), estimate highest/lowest PE = 30.57/25.69 (DPS 0.35)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2011 Q1 result announced = 0.04(exclude 257 million from other income)*4*1.05 = 0.168, estimate highest/lowest PE = 52.08/48.63 (DPS 0.35)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q4 result announced = 0.0509*4 = 0.2036, estimate highest/lowest PE = 42.98/37.77 (DPS 0.35)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q3 result announced = 0.0457*4 = 0.1828, estimate highest/lowest PE = 48.03/40.65 (DPS 0.35)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q2 result announced = 0.0457*4 = 0.1828, estimate highest/lowest PE = 47.37/40.59 (DPS 0.35)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q1 result announced = 0.0544*4 = 0.2176, estimate highest/lowest PE = 42/37.91 (DPS 0.35)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2009 Q4 result announced = 0.058*4 = 0.232, estimate highest/lowest PE = 37.07/33.62 (DPS 0.35)
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