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Tuesday, January 10, 2012

KLCI Stock - RSAWIT / 5113 - 2011 Quarter 3

Company Info
Market Capital (Capital Size)1,229,994,647 (Large)
Par ValueRM 0.50

My Analysis
Forecast P/E now(0.94-0.02)/0.06 = 15.33 (Moderate)
Target Price0.96+0.02 = 0.98 (PE 16.0, EPS 0.06, DPS 0.02)
DecisionBUY if stock price below or near to SMA20
Revenue increased 4.7% and was third consecutive quarter increasing and also higher than preceding year corresponding quarter 67.9%, eps decreased 26.8% and also lower than preceding year corresponding quarter 38.2%, cash generated from operating not enough for financing expenses but got enough cash generated from financing activities to cover all expenses, slightly higher liquidity ratio but still at very weak level now, lower gearing ratio but still at high level now, payables ratio got improved but still very high level now, going to benefit from increasing of CPO price
First Support Price0.9
Second Support Price0.84

Accounting Ratio
Return on Equity10.98%
Dividend Yield2.13%
Profit Margin23.78%
Tax Rate23.16%
Asset Turnover0.2423
Net Asset Value Per Share1.36
Net Tangible Asset per share1.14
Price/Net Tangible Asset Per Share0.75
Cash Per Share0.01
Liquidity Current Ratio0.2103
Liquidity Quick Ratio0.1496
Liquidity Cash Ratio0.0112
Gearing Debt to Equity Ratio1.4951
Gearing Debt to Asset Ratio0.5592
Working capital per thousand Ringgit sale-100.9%
Days to sell the inventory43
Days to collect the receivables65
Days to pay the payables282

Technical Analysis
SMA 200.901 (Uptrend 13 days)
SMA 500.847 (Uptrend)
SMA 1000.592 (Uptrend)
SMA 2000.509 (Uptrend)
MACD0.08773 (Downtrend 4 days)
MACD Histogram-0.010316 (Downtrend 19 days)

My notes based on 2011 quarter 3 report (number in '000):-
- Higher revenue mainly attributed by more favourable average crude palm oil (“CPO”) and palm kernel (“PK”) prices realised and higher volume of fresh fruit bunches (‘FFB”) production

- The higher FFB production for the current quarter also attributed by the addition of nine plantation estates and one commercial rights on plantation estate since September 2010

- The Group also achieved an increase in sales volume of CPO and PK

- The average selling prices also increased for CPO and PK

- Higher pbt than corresponding periods of last year principally due to higher prices on palm products and higher FFB production

- Lower pbt than FY11Q2 mainly due to higher dosage and more manuring rounds and lower average selling prices for CPO and PK

- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2011 Q3 result announced = 17855/1308505*4*1.1 = 0.06, estimate PE on current price 0.94 = 15.33
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2011 Q2 result announced = 0.113/4*2*1.1 = 0.0622, estimate highest/lowest PE = 16.4/7.15 (DPS 0.02)

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