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Tuesday, January 17, 2012

KLCI Stock - NAIM / 5073 - 2011 Quarter 3

Company Info
Market Capital (Capital Size)422,500,000 (Small)
Par ValueRM 1.00

My Analysis
Forecast P/E now(1.69-0.08)/0.1732 = 9.30 (Moderate)
Target Price1.73+0.08 = 1.81 (PE 10.0, EPS 0.1732, DPS 0.08)
DecisionNot interested unless stock price selling at above 1.7 is low or stock price below SMA20 and got stronger buying volume than selling
Comment
Revenue decreased 8.8% and was third consecutive quarter decreasing and also lower than preceding year corresponding quarter 33.1%, eps decreased 46.5% and also lower than preceding year corresponding quarter 73.3%, cash generated from operating and financing more than enough to cover all expenses, stronger liquidity ratio from high to strong level now, higher gearing ratio from moderate to above moderate level now, all accounting ratio still acceptable, property development cost maintain high, property development division performance getting bad
First Support Price1.68
Second Support Price1.55
Risk RatingMODERATE

Research House
TA Target Price5.53 (2011-01-26)
Kenanga Target Price4.2 (2011-03-01)
MIDF Target Price4.65 (2011-03-01)
CIMB Target Price2.73 (2011-05-13)
OSK Target Price3.04 (2011-05-23)
AMMB Target Price4.46 (2011-05-27)

Accounting Ratio
Return on Equity8.45%
Dividend Yield5.92%
Profit Margin13.30%
Tax Rate21.42%
Asset Turnover0.3984
Net Asset Value Per Share3.13
Net Tangible Asset per share3.09
Price/Net Tangible Asset Per Share0.57
Cash Per Share0.9
Liquidity Current Ratio5.2183
Liquidity Quick Ratio3.603
Liquidity Cash Ratio1.4168
Gearing Debt to Equity Ratio0.7196
Gearing Debt to Asset Ratio0.4135
Working capital per thousand Ringgit sale123.7%
Days to sell the inventory187
Days to collect the receivables222
Days to pay the payables110

Technical Analysis
SMA 201.677 (Uptrend 8 days)
SMA 501.708 (Downtrend)
SMA 1001.762 (Downtrend)
SMA 2002.126 (Downtrend)
MACD-0.028364 (Uptrend 20 days)
MACD Histogram0.017700 (Uptrend 14 days)

My notes based on 2011 quarter 3 report (number in '000):-
- Lower revenue and pbt mainly attributed by lower stages of completion achieved for the housing and construction projects. A majority of the existing construction projects was substantially completed and contributed minimal profit

- Its oil and gas associate, Dayang Enterprise Holdings Bhd (DEHB) continues to contribute positively to the earnings of the Group

- Lower pbt than FY11Q2 mainly due to the gain on partial disposal of equity interest in DEHB of about RM10 million reported in the preceding quarter

- Lower results is due in part to the sluggish demand for properties in Sarawak over the past two years amidst fears of overheating in the property sector affected by uncertainties over increasing cost of commodities, rising interest rates and decreasing purchasing power, inability to secure major construction contracts was also a contributing factor

- As early as June 2011, the Group launched Phase 7 of our Riveria Project in Kuching, the demand for our houses there exceeded expectations. In fact, the value of properties sold up to 3Q2011 of RM170 million exceeded sales of RM145 million achieved in the whole of previous year. This will translate into property revenue from 2012

- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q3 result announced = 0.0433*4 = 0.1732, estimate PE on current price 1.69 = 9.3(DPS 0.08)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q2 result announced = (0.0516+0.043)*2 = 0.1892(exclude RM10 million disposal gain), estimate highest/lowest PE = 10.15/7.93 (DPS 0.08)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q1 result announced = 0.4023*0.85 = 0.342(0.4023 from recent fourth quarter eps), estimate highest/lowest PE = 7.19/5.38 (DPS 0.1)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q4 result announced = 0.0921*4*0.9 = 0.3316, estimate highest/lowest PE = 9.77/8.84 (DPS 0.1)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q3 result announced = 0.2587*2*0.9 = 0.4657, estimate highest/lowest PE = 8.16/6.79 (DPS 0.1)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q2 result announced = 0.1619*2*1.1 = 0.3562, estimate highest/lowest PE = 10.47/8.84 (DPS 0.1)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q1 result announced = 0.2988 (10% drop from 0.332, due to profit decreasing), estimate highest/lowest PE = 11.28/8.57 (DPS 0.08)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2009 Q4 result announced = 0.0793*4 = 0.3172, estimate highest/lowest PE = 11.41/8.89 (DPS 0.08)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2009 Q3 result announced = 0.0902*4 = 0.3608, estimate highest/lowest PE = 9.87/6.59 (DPS 0.08)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2009 Q2 result announced = 0.0955*4 = 0.382, estimate highest/lowest PE = 8.04/6.73 (DPS 0.08)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2009 Q1 result announced = 0.0668*4 = 0.2672, estimate highest/lowest PE = 10.18/6.4 (DPS 0.13)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2008 Q4 result announced = 0.1118*4 = 0.4472, estimate highest/lowest PE = 4.07/2.17 (DPS 0.13)

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