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Monday, January 16, 2012

KLCI Stock - GENM / 4715 - 2011 Quarter 3


Company Info 
Market Capital (Capital Size)22,986,860,754 (Very Large)
Par ValueRM 0.10

My Analysis 
Forecast P/E now(3.88-0.08)/0.2697 = 14.09 (Moderate)
Target Price4.05+0.08 = 4.13 (PE 15.0, EPS 0.2697, DPS 0.08)
DecisionBUY if stock price below SMA20 and buying volume more than selling
Comment
Revenue increased 22.1% and also higher than preceding year corresponding quarter 92.5%, eps increased 10.8% and also higher than preceding year corresponding quarter 3.7%, cash generated from operating enough for financing expenses but still increased borrowings and spent 14.1% of Group cash to cover investing expenses, weaker liquidity ratio but still at moderate level now, higher gearing ratio at below moderate level now, all accounting ratio are good, got new revenue stream from Resort World New York, Casino UK recovered from loss
First Support Price3.8
Second Support Price3.7
Risk RatingMODERATE

Research House
Credit Suisse Target Price3.3 (2011-01-14)
Macquarie Target Price4.25 (2011-04-06)
MIMB Target Price4.26 (2011-05-27)
OSK Target Price4.1 (2011-08-02)
CIMB Target Price4.5 (2011-09-19)
RHB Target Price3.9 (2011-10-19)
UOB Target Price3.95 (2011-10-24)
ECM Target Price3.42 (2011-11-25)
Kenanga Target Price4.4 (2012-01-06)
Maybank Target Price3.88 (2012-01-06)
AMMB Target Price4.3 (2012-01-10)
HLG Target Price4.07 (2012-01-12)

Accounting Ratio 
Return on Equity12.37%
Dividend Yield2.11%
Profit Margin20.00%
Tax Rate25.04%
Asset Turnover0.4757
Net Asset Value Per Share2.06
Net Tangible Asset per share1.5
Price/Net Tangible Asset Per Share2.57
Cash Per Share0.72
Liquidity Current Ratio2.0511
Liquidity Quick Ratio2.0219
Liquidity Cash Ratio1.5911
Gearing Debt to Equity Ratio0.3925
Gearing Debt to Asset Ratio0.2818
Working capital per thousand Ringgit sale34.7%
Days to sell the inventory5
Days to collect the receivables52
Days to pay the payables87

Technical Analysis 
SMA 203.849 (Uptrend 1 day)
SMA 503.836 (Uptrend)
SMA 1003.647 (Uptrend)
SMA 2003.598 (Uptrend)
MACD0.052739 (Downtrend 2 days)
MACD Histogram-0.007466 (Downtrend 24 days)

My notes based on 2011 quarter 3 report (number in '000):-
- Higher revenue mainly attributable to:
1. the construction revenue of RM566.9 million generated from the progressive development of the video lottery facility at the Aqueduct Racetrack in the City of New York, USA
2. revenue of RM332.3 million from the casino business in UK
3. the leisure and hospitality business in Malaysia which reported higher revenue by RM203.9 million or 17%. The increase was mainly due to overall higher volume of business and higher hold percentage in the premium players business

- Higher pbt mainly attributable to:
1. higher profit from the leisure and hospitality business in Malaysia
2. higher profit from the casino business in UK
3. the construction profit of RM54.3 million generated from the progressive development of the video lottery facility at Resorts World Casino New York City

- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q3 result announced = 0.0613*4*1.1 = 0.2697, estimate PE on current price 3.88 = 14.09(DPS 0.082)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q2 result announced = (0.0736+0.0617)*2*0.95 = 0.2571, estimate highest/lowest PE = 14.89/11.39 (DPS 0.082)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q1 result announced = 0.0736*4 = 0.2944, estimate highest/lowest PE = 13.08/11.18 (DPS 0.08)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q4 result announced = 0.2241*1.1 = 0.2465, estimate highest/lowest PE = 15.26/12.74 (DPS 0.08)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q3 result announced = 0.0591*4 = 0.2364, estimate highest/lowest PE = 15.15/13.16 (DPS 0.079)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q2 result announced = 0.2315*1.05 = 0.2431, estimate highest/lowest PE = 14.98/11.85 (DPS 0.079)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q1 result announced = 0.2315*1.05 = 0.2431, estimate highest/lowest PE = 12.66/9.82 (DPS 0.073)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2009 Q4 result announced = 0.0628*4 = 0.2512, estimate highest/lowest PE = 11.25/9.7 (DPS 0.073)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2009 Q3 result announced = 0.0629*4 = 0.2516, estimate highest/lowest PE = 11.45/10.33 (DPS 0.07)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2009 Q2 result announced = 0.0577*4 = 0.2308, estimate highest/lowest PE = 12.35/11.44 (DPS 0.07)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2009 Q1 result announced = 0.0481*4 = 0.1924, estimate highest/lowest PE = 15.23/12.79 (DPS 0.07)

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