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Thursday, January 5, 2012

KLCI Stock - PCHEM / 5183 - 2011 Quarter 6

Company Info
Market Capital (Capital Size)49,600,000,000 (Very Large)
Par ValueRM 0.10

My Analysis
Forecast P/E now(6.2-0.19)/0.5185 = 11.59 (Moderate)
Target Price8.30+0.19 = 8.49 (PE 16.0, EPS 0.5185, DPS 0.19)
DecisionBUY if stock price below or near to SMA20
Revenue increased 38.7% and also higher than preceding year corresponding quarter 46.4%, eps increased 55.9% and also higher than preceding year corresponding quarter 108.7%, cash generated from operating not enough to cover financing expenses hence spent 3.5% of Group cash to cover, weaker liquidity ratio strong very strong to moderate level now, lower gearing ratio at below moderate level now, all accounting ratio are good, higher inventory can indicate better demand of products
First Support Price6.1
Second Support Price6.0

Research House
JP Morgan Target Price7.8 (2011-03-09)
Credit Suisse Target Price8.5 (2011-04-05)
OSK Target Price9.28 (2011-05-30)
AMMB Target Price8.43 (2011-06-01)
CIMB Target Price9.7 (2011-08-24)
Affin Target Price7.5 (2011-10-17)
MIDF Target Price5.6 (2011-10-21)
Maybank Target Price7.5 (2011-12-08)
RHB Target Price6.72 (2011-12-12)

Accounting Ratio
Return on Equity8.76%
Dividend Yield4.35%
Profit Margin36.65%
Tax Rate25.18%
Asset Turnover0.5727
Net Asset Value Per Share2.5
Net Tangible Asset per share2.24
Price/Net Tangible Asset Per Share2.65
Cash Per Share1.08
Liquidity Current Ratio2.734
Liquidity Quick Ratio2.4411
Liquidity Cash Ratio1.9408
Gearing Debt to Equity Ratio0.3406
Gearing Debt to Asset Ratio0.2401
Working capital per thousand Ringgit sale47.6%
Days to sell the inventory42
Days to collect the receivables48
Days to pay the payables61

Technical Analysis
SMA 206.101 (Uptrend 12 days)
SMA 506.063 (Uptrend)
SMA 1005.97 (Downtrend)
SMA 2006.354 (Same)
MACD0.055078 (Uptrend 16 days)
MACD Histogram0.026497 (Uptrend 19 days)

My notes based on 2011 quarter 6 report (number in '000):-
- Higher revenue and pbt due to higher average product prices, utilisation rates of Olefins and Derivatives plants improved to 97%

- Compared to FY11Q5, gas supply limitation was at a reduced level in the current quarter with only our methanol facilities facing constraints in gas supply

- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2011 Q6 result announced = (0.0921+0.1436)*2*1.1 = 0.5185, estimate PE on current price 6.2 = 11.59(DPS 0.19)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2011 Q5 result announced = (0.0921+0.105)*2*0.95 = 0.3745, estimate highest/lowest PE = 16.85/13.46 (DPS 0.19)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2011 Q4 result announced = 0.1165*4 = 0.466, estimate highest/lowest PE = 15.15/12.45 (DPS 0.19)

- Yearly net eps, 2008 = 0.491, 2009 = 0.352, 2010 = 0.275

PCHEM latest news (English)

PCHEM latest news (Chinese)

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