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Monday, January 2, 2012

KLCI Stock - MUDAJYA / 5085 - 2011 Quarter 3

Company Info
Market Capital (Capital Size)1,200,834,960 (Large)
Par ValueRM 0.20

My Analysis
Forecast P/E now(2.19-0.075)/0.3815 = 5.54 (Moderate)
Target Price4.58+0.075 = 4.65 (PE 12.0, EPS 0.3815, DPS 0.075)
DecisionBUY if buying volume largely stronger than selling volume
Comment
Revenue decreased 5.3% but higher than preceding year corresponding quarter 76.4%, eps decreased 6.2% but higher than preceding year corresponding quarter 21.9%, cash generated from operating enough for financing expenses but spent 21.7% of Group cash to cover investing expenses, stronger liquidity ratio at moderate level now, lower gearing ratio at below moderate level now, receivables and payables ratio still acceptable, manufacturing division slow down
First Support Price2.15
Second Support Price2.0
Risk RatingMODERATE

Research House
OSK Target Price2.96 (2011-10-14)
CIMB Target Price4 (2011-11-23)
HLG Target Price4.61 (2011-12-15)

Accounting Ratio
Return on Equity24.70%
Dividend Yield3.88%
Profit Margin23.84%
Tax Rate5.84%
Asset Turnover0.9326
Net Asset Value Per Share1.95
Net Tangible Asset per share1.95
Price/Net Tangible Asset Per Share1.1
Cash Per Share0.44
Liquidity Current Ratio2.869
Liquidity Quick Ratio2.6242
Liquidity Cash Ratio0.7318
Gearing Debt to Equity Ratio0.3074
Gearing Debt to Asset Ratio0.2221
Working capital per thousand Ringgit sale44.5%
Days to sell the inventory28
Days to collect the receivables164
Days to pay the payables110



Technical Analysis 
SMA 202.199 (Downtrend 5 days)
SMA 502.239 (Downtrend)
SMA 1002.325 (Downtrend)
SMA 2002.872 (Downtrend)
MACD-0.047484 (Uptrend 4 days)
MACD Histogram0.009836 (Uptrend 57 days)

My notes based on 2011 quarter 3 report (number in '000):-
- Higher revenue than FY10Q3 mainly attributable to the increased level of activities

- Lower pbt than FY11Q2 was affected by the stronger Ringgit Malaysia (RM) against US Dollar (USD) and the lower contribution from some of the activities

- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2011 Q3 result announced = 63001*4*0.83/548326 = 0.3815, estimate PE on current price 2.19 = 5.54(DPS 0.075)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2011 Q2 result announced = (0.1477+0.1011)*2*0.75 = 0.3732, estimate highest/lowest PE = 7.18/4.53 (DPS 0.11)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2011 Q1 result announced = 0.2407*2 = 0.4814, estimate highest/lowest PE = 9.74/6.54 (DPS 0.06)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q4 result announced = 0.5096*1.05 = 0.5351, estimate highest/lowest PE = 9.62/8.16 (DPS 0.045)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q3 result announced = 0.1137*0.9*4 = 0.4093, estimate highest/lowest PE = 13.18/9.05 (DPS 0.045)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q2 result announced = 0.1235*0.9*4 = 0.4446(based on preceding quarter eps to minus 10% adjustment due to revenue dropped 12%), estimate highest/lowest PE = 10.34/8.54 (DPS 0.045)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q1 result announced = 0.1235*4 = 0.494, estimate highest/lowest PE = 12.27/7.51 (DPS 0.04)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2009 Q4 result announced = 0.1102*4 = 0.4408, estimate highest/lowest PE = 12.51/10.81 (DPS 0.036)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2009 Q3 result announced = 0.0948*4 = 0.3792, estimate highest/lowest PE = 13.76/10.68 (DPS 0.031)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2009 Q2 result announced = 0.0711*4 = 0.2844, estimate highest/lowest PE = 14.31/11.25 (DPS 0.031)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2009 Q1 result announced = 0.0377*4 = 0.1508, estimate highest/lowest PE = 24.6/9.08 (DPS 0.031)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2008 Q4 result announced = 0.0278*4 = 0.1112, estimate highest/lowest PE = 13.98/9.58 (DPS 0.045)

MUDAJYA latest news (English)

MUDAJYA latest news (Chinese)

1 comment:

Harry said...

Hi, I came across your site and wasn’t able to get an email address to contact you. Would you please consider adding a link to my website on your page. Please email me back.

Thanks!

Harry
harry.roger10@gmail.com

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