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Monday, January 30, 2012

KLCI Stock - IJM / 3336 - 2012 Quarter 2


Company Info 
Market Capital (Capital Size)7,875,168,757 (Very Large)
Par ValueRM 1.00

My Analysis 
Forecast P/E now(5.7-0.11)/0.33 = 16.94 (Moderate)
Target Price6.27+0.11 = 6.38 (PE 19.0, EPS 0.33, DPS 0.11)
DecisionBUY if Bolinger upper band open and stock price uptrend
Comment
Revenue increased 6.2% and also higher than preceding year corresponding quarter 39.7%, eps decreased 35.5% and also lower than preceding year corresponding quarter 36.5%, cash generated from operating not enough to fully cover financing expenses hence still generated cash from financing activities to cover other expenses, stronger liquidity ratio at moderate level now, higher gearing ratio at high level now, benefit from CPO price above 3.1k, high inventory and property development cost can indicate segment performance can maintain
First Support Price5.4
Second Support Price5.2
Risk RatingMODERATE

Research House
TA Target Price6.35 (2011-01-03)
MIDF Target Price6.48 (2011-02-24)
Credit Suisse Target Price8 (2011-03-29)
OSK Target Price6.96 (2011-05-30)
CIMB Target Price7.81 (2011-07-05)
UOB Target Price6.3 (2011-08-15)
AMMB Target Price7.71 (2011-09-12)
HwangDBS Target Price8.7 (2011-09-14)
ECM Target Price7.02 (2011-11-29)
HLG Target Price5.76 (2011-11-29)
Maybank Target Price6.2 (2011-11-29)
RHB Target Price4.48 (2012-01-18)

Accounting Ratio 
Return on Equity4.52%
Dividend Yield1.93%
Profit Margin14.71%
Tax Rate31.13%
Asset Turnover0.3047
Net Asset Value Per Share3.71
Net Tangible Asset per share3.65
Price/Net Tangible Asset Per Share1.53
Cash Per Share1.63
Liquidity Current Ratio2.6405
Liquidity Quick Ratio1.7359
Liquidity Cash Ratio0.9272
Gearing Debt to Equity Ratio1.2876
Gearing Debt to Asset Ratio0.498
Working capital per thousand Ringgit sale99.3%
Days to sell the inventory240
Days to collect the receivables170
Days to pay the payables166

Technical Analysis 
SMA 205.512 (Uptrend 1 day)
SMA 505.563 (Downtrend)
SMA 1005.449 (Downtrend)
SMA 2005.799 (Downtrend)
MACD-0.012606 (Uptrend 1 day)
MACD Histogram0.002569 (Uptrend 1 day)

My notes based on 2012 quarter 2 report (number in '000):-
- Higher revenue due to higher revenue from plantation and property division

- Lower pbt due to unrealised foreign exchange losses on US Dollar denominated borrowings in Infrastructure division of RM32 million

- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2012 Q2 result announced = 0.0825*4 = 0.33, estimate PE on current price 5.7 = 16.94(DPS 0.11)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2012 Q1 result announced = 0.0825*4*0.95 = 0.3135, estimate highest/lowest PE = 19.3/11.96 (DPS 0.15)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2011 Q4 result announced = 0.1819*2*1.1 = 0.4002, estimate highest/lowest PE = 16.07/13.17 (DPS 0.15)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2011 Q3 result announced = 0.0765*4*1.1 = 0.3366, estimate highest/lowest PE = 19.93/16.87 (DPS 0.15)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2011 Q2 result announced = 0.0765*4*1.1 = 0.3366, estimate highest/lowest PE = 19.93/15.92 (DPS 0.11)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2011 Q1 result announced = 0.0662*4*1.05 = 0.278, estimate highest/lowest PE = 20.36/17.3 (DPS 0.11)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q4 result announced = 0.2484*0.9 = 0.2236 (10% drop, exclude foreign exchange gained), estimate highest/lowest PE = 22.58/19.5 (DPS 0.11)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q3 result announced = 0.0621*4 = 0.2484 (expecting revenue and profit recover hence no decrease on eps), estimate highest/lowest PE = 20.53/17.43 (DPS 0.05)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q2 result announced = 0.2556, estimate highest/lowest PE = 19.13/16.55 (DPS 0.05)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q1 result announced = 0.271, estimate highest/lowest PE = 25.13/15.68 (DPS 0.05)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2009 Q4 result announced = 0.3251, estimate highest/lowest PE = 19.53/16.15 (DPS 0.05)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2009 Q3 result announced = 0.2612, estimate highest/lowest PE = 21.06/12.44 (DPS 0.25)

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1 comment:

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