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Sunday, January 1, 2012

KLCI Stock - MAS / 3786 - 2011 Quarter 3

MALAYSIAN AIRLINE SYSTEM BERHAD

Company Description
MALAYSIAN AIRLINE SYSTEM BERHAD is engaged in the business of air transportation and the provision of related services. As of December 31, 2007, it operated over 100 aircrafts, and the fleet dominated by Boeing 737s, 747s and 777s. It operates in two business segments. The Airline operations segment is engaged in the operation of aircraft for passenger. The Cargo services segment is engaged in the operation of aircraft for cargo and mail services. The Company is also engaged in hotel operations, catering, engineering, computerized reservation services, coach transportation, trucking and warehousing services, retailing of goods, terminal charges, and tour and travel-related activities. The Company flies 42,000 passengers to over 100 destinations across six continents everyday. In September 2007, the Company incorporated and purchased Malaysian Aerospace Engineering Sdn. Bhd., MASWings Sdn. Bhd., and FlyFirefly Holiday Sdn. Bhd. In December 2008, it acquired Kelip-kelip Labuan Limited.

Company Info
Listing Date1985-12-16
Market Capital (Capital Size)4,344,803,112 (Large)
Par ValueRM 1.00
BoardMain
SectorTrading/Services
Major IndustryAir Transportation
Sub IndustryAir Cargo
Websitehttp://www.malaysiaairlines.com

My Analysis
Forecast P/E now1.3/0.1152 = 11.28 (Moderate)
Target Price0.1152*12.0 = 1.38 (PE 12.0, EPS 0.1152)
DecisionNot interested unless stock price below 1.2 or got strong buy volume vs sell volume
Comment
Revenue increased 1.9% and was second consecutive quarter increasing and also higher than preceding year corresponding quarter 5.2%, eps decreased 9.3% loss but increased 307.7% loss than preceding year corresponding quarter, no cash generated from operating but cash generated from financing enough to cover operating expenses and still spent 49.7% of Group cash to cover investing expenses, weaker liquidity ratio at weak level now, higher gearing ratio at very high level now, all accounting ratio are good, affecting by oil price increasing
First Support Price1.3
Second Support Price1.2
Risk RatingHIGH

Research House
Kenanga Target Price2.2 (2011-08-08)
HwangDBS Target Price1.55 (2011-08-10)
MIDF Target Price1.6 (2011-08-24)
CIMB Target Price1.6 (2011-09-20)
ECM Target Price1 (2011-11-22)
OSK Target Price0.96 (2011-11-23)
RHB Target Price1.04 (2011-11-23)
HLG Target Price1.19 (2011-12-08)
Maybank Target Price1.55 (2011-12-08)
TA Target Price1.33 (2011-12-08)

Accounting Ratio
Return on Equity-47.12%
Dividend Yield-
Profit Margin-13.21%
Tax Rate-
Asset Turnover1.1072
Net Asset Value Per Share0.69
Net Tangible Asset per share0.65
Price/Net Tangible Asset Per Share2.09
Cash Per Share0.34
Liquidity Current Ratio0.5095
Liquidity Quick Ratio0.4289
Liquidity Cash Ratio0.197
Gearing Debt to Equity Ratio4.3387
Gearing Debt to Asset Ratio0.8117
Working capital per thousand Ringgit sale-20.6%
Days to sell the inventory12
Days to collect the receivables35
Days to pay the payables107

Technical Analysis
SMA 201.312 (Downtrend 2 days)
SMA 501.365 (Downtrend)
SMA 1001.436 (Downtrend)
SMA 2001.539 (Downtrend)
MACD-0.036053 (Uptrend 6 days)
MACD Histogram-0.000036 (Downtrend 26 days)

My notes based on 2011 quarter 3 report (number in '000):-
- The loss is attributable to higher fuel cost, derivative loss of RM70 million and unrealised foreign exchange loss of RM195 million

- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2011 Q3 result announced = 0.128*0.9 = 0.1152, estimate PE on current price 1.3 = 11.28
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2011 Q2 result announced = (0.067*3)-0.073 = 0.128, estimate highest/lowest PE = 12.66/9.61
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2011 Q1 result announced = 0.07, estimate highest/lowest PE = 27.86/19.14

MAS latest news (English)

MAS latest news (Chinese)



Financial Quarter Summary
a_dateyearqrth_pricel_pricedivroec_roerevc_revpbtc_pbtprofc_profepsc_epsassetliabminoequicfocficffcashfcfnetfinalsharec_sharem_capdateprof_mvatasset_tpenavpsntapsp/ntapscpsl_curl_quil_cashg_deg_daavg_winv_drec_dpay_d
2011-11-2120113N/AN/A-20.56%53.68%349287310063445461540120920247758512466040.14290.373012333078100107101504623223685164081258478819612192377717748869552749685033342156334215645453322011-09-3013.21%-1.1072-0.690.652.090.340.50950.42890.1974.33870.8117-20.6%1235107
2011-08-23201121.621.23-18.86%27.54%342867365705725094117476625266807690190.15760.2301124364379643580144732792857279864514877398914192377779474139582715279503342156334215654811352011-06-3014.86%-1.0841-0.830.792.080.510.61660.54140.28633.47090.7754-16.8%1141112
2011-05-25201111.951.34-7.29%7.29%314189931418992382512382512423392423390.07250.0725127306919407853137273322838205661457022446869192377766268321581417079633342156334215652806062011-03-317.58%-1.0379-0.990.951.660.560.65370.58120.32082.8430.739-15.3%1141114
2011-02-23201042.011.58-6.56%6.63%3592010129804472644492820362320662344690.06680.0725124320768894832130783537244147958359435429208112449362344639652558519237773476501323477869530022010-12-317.36%12.05%1.044127.59241.091.051.90.640.73610.65730.40672.5240.7155-11.1%1238116
2010-11-25201032.271.92-7.28%0.26%331918593884372421602373523931985520.06880.002712006591871748313917328910896540297018325424012449362306672352432219250403476501319898571615922010-09-307.30%0.90%1.0501-1.020.992.080.650.72430.65140.40542.66170.7261-12.2%1140120
2010-08-16201022.422.02-16.95%7.12%315983460692515325912123405347292246820.16000.0718119398158785024135523154791287759274319225949812449003303095143597020130333342156312774276201152010-06-3016.86%-1.0203-1.00.972.350.750.78690.71280.46272.79670.7358-9.5%1141121
2010-05-17201012.311.83-8.46%8.46%290941729094173202513202513100473100470.10350.103511993740833005012384366369046841919682842527187244936224367039048425398462995623299562361709832010-03-3111.01%3.03%0.9588-1.221.181.751.061.00460.92090.62392.28140.69450.2%1348120
2010-02-22200942.391.83-85.69%68.89%3219520113098555687334619906097044901970.34710.2864854828678367241186971156216475752938418624732940623135373449126124493621756566171158233374752009-12-3117.67%-1.3196.63410.410.345.591.680.85110.78190.530911.20020.9168-7.3%1245130
2009-11-25200933.181.8-219.55%87.57%289386080903352970651067432996231195070.17930.0715819590580594361333413646918473656218333466029406231785182145052214901011671078167106151803412009-09-3010.27%-1.4421-0.070.01310.01.450.74030.6760.393365.4520.9833-13.6%1154135
2009-08-06200923.352.9-202.34%41.56%247728251651098961461899048749441796980.49650.1075847993980475181261543242114765706371827854929406231412852113430318063201762305167105254631452009-06-3036.17%2.28%1.5187-0.250.1916.321.610.73430.67880.429819.16960.949-13.6%1047124
2009-06-12200913.222.88-156.37%156.37%268438726843877095417095416985466985460.41800.41809132138957886311870-446725914165239381189746294062367478448503824555851671042167104254475962009-03-3126.43%-1.5395--0.27-0.34-9.592.110.8880.82720.5532-20.88741.0489-5.1%1043116
2009-02-26200843.422.37-1.10%5.82%37641321503530349841264661461802441900.02760.1461100715965874620112784196976623651135971348964944343381983364149371529406231671002167099645117052008-12-311.32%6.46%1.492818.47612.52.441.112.611.36641.28870.89351.40350.583311.9%94787
2008-11-28200833.322.49-0.92%4.78%39522861127117019683214942380931981320.02150.11171034584262035571199941422854335438083413776164434338124188486426835700701774147177417245418162008-09-300.50%-1.4816-2.332.271.132.721.4121.33570.91611.5020.599614.2%105199
2008-08-18200823.82.5-0.98%3.91%3657738731888560970195259399781600390.02250.09021040654463143861152540921581350837287496443433835936635946240748761774140177414063869042008-06-301.67%34.43%1.4543-2.32.241.612.861.40181.32740.93131.54740.606814.5%1051114
2008-05-20200814.02.94-2.95%2.95%366114736611471342891342891200611200610.06770.06771003294759646701152540682776411412909896443433819321219330842410301774140177414065643182008-03-313.67%10.25%1.4813-2.292.231.662.891.44791.37451.00611.47030.594515.4%945109
2008-02-25200744.483.220.0256.13%21.58%4056783146302312470328823332419258514180.15410.5424100619816116032110563945949237058650727498632715846991863312284963944343381569861156986168759912007-12-316.09%1.93%1.45818.07592.512.441.83.131.34991.28040.93591.55430.607812.5%945116
2007-11-26200735.14.26-14.45%24.21%3758443106142223736666353013639356094930.26020.43588489381597153415265251784712721844274525223315846991699636164740332321021398620139862064056792007-09-309.94%2.44%1.6804-1.791.722.662.311.07881.00920.59072.38610.70343.0%1057111
2007-08-27200725.44.42-5.29%11.51%338523268557791189422616351128482455580.08070.1756804175559084081481721333477918753559795125315846991147854109660126813001398620139862067133762007-06-303.51%5.17%1.3065-1.511.453.311.921.01670.94050.49582.78890.73470.9%1478171
2007-05-2820071N/AN/A-6.54%6.54%347054734705471426931426931327101327100.09490.0949735796553295641486920284013730966188051102158469931121626011418448131398620139862080420652007-03-314.11%6.70%0.9679-1.441.394.141.310.97550.8950.37912.64690.7243-1.7%20100224
2007-02-2620064N/AN/A-6.43%7.22%365093613067175143082731191214721364320.08690.0975702588251372111524618886711410855030241049399117940964410940529015846991398620139862065455412006-12-313.92%14.71%0.5196-1.341.283.661.130.74080.66570.30862.74210.7312-36.5%39178374

Financial Quarter Balance Sheet
yearqrtAmount due from associated companies (A-0)Deferred tax assets (A-0)Intangible assets (A-0)Investment in associated companies (A-0)Investment in jointly controlled entity (A-0)Negotiable instruments of deposit (A-0)Other assets (A-0)Other investments (A-0)Prepaid lease payments (A-0)Property, plant and equipment (A-0)Receivables (A-0)Amount due from associated companies (A-1)Cash and cash equivalents (A-1)Current asset classified as held for sales (A-1)Current tax assets (A-1)Derivative financial assets (A-1)Inventories (A-1)Negotiable instruments of deposit (A-1)Other receivables (A-1)Trade receivables (A-1)Deferred income (L-0)Deferred tax liabilities (L-0)Derivative financial liabilities (L-0)Loans & borrowings (L-0)Amount due to associated companies (L-1)Current tax liabilities (L-1)Deferred income (L-1)Derivative financial liabilities (L-1)Dividend payable (L-1)Loans & borrowings (L-1)Other payables (L-1)Provision for liabilities (L-1)Sales in advance of carriage (L-1)Trade and other payables (L-1)Minority interest (M-1)
20113-12191331401060062791--54599-8699413415321-1024091-10962-462173105272-1318091-29187274274221859-157828112834474-557631-8803291807806216929115046
20112-12191277641053568647--54604-8052271449275-1583500-7682-443440105260-149741925409419985493481724-16182-19189-643583-8742352178609216721614473
20111-247513231310757711582--54604-8160766453667-1763471-1274614499422362105272-1489357-291473573813-4049247079--577479-9430821844178220902413727
20104-34951377321018042360--54604-7663357442575-2085451-19436-430849139206-1351207-2101553414913-3614232823108080-293867-9349671677346221906513078
20103-3383811561194737429-232167539532735587165488--2120760---406494138766-1370790-2771753066885-3581-343104-229686-10493851946620200104513917
20102-3376012056185987--241214539522916786843282--2270323---402018240242-1356798--1778443181666-3622-426995-227602-9294741852930198489113552
20101-3284712698382756--238284539523257695997690--2796778---427830392376-1518475--2050433013227-3000-323586-249762-8030341752047198035112384
20094-34026110041789761798-223797539521799833132584--2664859---384916287466-1395888--2717782004062-3696-584787-315518-9022951676536207805211869
20093-265810409569953--224838565201801032983008--1725435---397357705070-1746868-16956497181228455-11066-938317-544478-9375621442911230523413334
20092-265710527776253-100000243132552101984382850447--2133076---366357704846-1644246-1693769901672722-11278-832990-1042297-8781991446514239192412615
20091-1981110742976930-250000210426590962088922546479--2941530--83097386987579909-1661552--2544601668318-11475-866335-945844-8198621137341258508711870
20084-134810625373268-250000213092649462198542464823--3571743---379730795000-1931539-1693-985577-5001---433411-8177031222410240882511278
20083210406377110745769527---6494617478236022075276189784825069107663996-401781-9801771145684---936650-13412---36334210034257421501508821163575711999
20082226973377111157165337---6632517519217939089228-5079876111260142-405815-8842031215282---85967253934526--41774-10591867131811787123181838511525
20081235153351610351663403---6632517566207986872328-5136030163660159-374980-7121781106289-315-8596725227716387----11167437291601462723172739311525
20074243377400710316258447-340000-6632517613206087972878-44343382740--365266485000-1807949-315-859672-4432-----6818281563394300639111056
200732551102260110277564997---699733418791729444--323210268352049-381239-11719541064575-315-5000005494919757---5000009258176626671395152191287715265
20072268826300849130357923---689033457501680478--26813009965650340-412049-10313011223842-315-5000004641819568---5000001338882-1551419195180614817
20071288687341557208568306---103850-2080434--183053648910846717-388710-9429201012457-1053-5000002960120593---5000001227524-1210664184012914869
20064295860418288036267461---102701918242411537129410-15846991064745608-385769-7535961024580-1277--7203120458---10500007194663477141202060172420515246

Financial Quarter Income Statement
yearqrtRevenueIncome tax expenseFinance/interest costsOther incomeAdministrative/Operating expensesMinority interestShare of profit/ (loss) of associatesDiscontinued operationForeign exchange (loss)/gainAfter tax effect of finance cost on RCPSDerivative (loss)/gainShare of net profit of jointly controlled entityGains on sale of propertiesResidual value sharing on sale of aircraft by Penerbangan Malaysia BerhadDomestic rationalisation expenses and redundancy expensesCompensation for domestic rationalisation
20113349287315472416637216837213705737565-195075-701835855----
20112342867316347354525655238977389222221---560853140----
2011131418993439383725220134615056495773---645702817----
20104359201031854324398112835358075297704--61481437741931----
20103331918521764502980384327691366513013--608615571410280----
2010231598349703304453101349855411683231---2171590----
20101290941796892789039255030124635153780---566551798----
20094321952041824247918927033050168539798---5816931741----
2009328938601839199986711230342767191704---202059-----
2009224772822045718045696602972574745677---1340500-----
20091268438711587174403855928640115925965---557001-----
20084376413232192005810230438001974423647-----13---
200833952286188843028216699240750014745566122----0---
200823657738209926864115921371208305805-----453---
2008136611471375935658729336174864694956-----1944---
20074405678347791110580722385842232826270----119819517--
200733758443910596058398637383266267140258----51729220557--
20072338523261451314454379339095451353837317----342828292--
20071347054795601303257247339867742345204362----17726---
20064365093621044120776474036236485667537961----209263562900

Financial Quarter Segments Revenue
yearqrtOthersElimination/AdjustmentAirlines OperationsCargo ServicesCatering services
20113381393392073304318489623-
20112183142765103156860530009-
20111220822662832875886510214-
20104289112781943225041616252-
20103250082841642999506578836-
20102289193200722825450625537-
20101253222513812599371536105-
20094275412320452868732634571-
20093240812124952614822450594-
20092227371959472273810380122-
20091234121950262496766359235-
200841512728095334086966183002962
200832351637729136368466684072601
200822472427589732220536789402529
200812278424840432615606253362405
200741538329269735571597270702727
200732732826293734022777015462528
200722583125942630796246479332546
200712215922580031713566105032506
200643712026229131570067734842859

Financial Quarter Segments Profit
yearqrtOthersElimination/AdjustmentAirlines OperationsCargo ServicesCatering services
2011314801962350695524312-
2011254544688650242834449-
2011128511894728057120522-
2010435638467914310026959-
201032757272019585640182-
2010276481063557885849254-
201014963300929298325314-
20094214233888156026221430-
200931186353725793936932-
2009226711323195834848343-
200911526595362015684958-
20084350136759381514148610
200832483272111932775397585
200823447861777548403603
200814365-6479963533201
2007488943909522545964771735
2007350836034818827715338
20072417811426615461615079476
200713676534211212418617108
20064661347786369365456963

Short form reference
a_date = announcement date, yr = financial year end, qrt = quarter
h_price = stock highest price during the quarter, l_price = stock lowest price during the quarter
div = dividend recommend or declare in the quarter, roe = return on equity
c_roe = cumulative of return on equity during the financial year
rev = revenue in the current quarter, c_rev = cumulative of revenue during the financial year
pbt = profit before tax in the current quarter, c_pbt = cumulative of profit before tax during the financial year
eps = earnings per share in the current quarter, c_eps = cumulative of earnings per share during the financial year
asset = total asset, liab = total liability, mino = minority interest, equi = total equity
cfo = net cash flow from operating activities, cfi = net cash flow from investing activities
cff = net cash flow from financing activities, cash = cash and cash equivalents as at beginning of financial year
final = cash and cash equivalents as at current financial period ended
share = diluted/basic weighted average number of ordinary shares
c_share = cumulative of diluted/basic weighted average number of ordinary shares during the financial year
m_cap = market capital at announcement date of quarterly report, date = current financial period ended date
prof_m = profit margin, vat = income tax rate, pe = price earning per share ratio of recent four quarter
navps = net asset value per share, ntaps = net tangible asset per share, cps = cash per share
l_cur = liquidity current ratio, l_qui = liquidity quick ratio, l_cash = liquidity cash ratio
g_de = gearing debt to equity ratio, g_da = gearing debt to assets ratio
avg_w = working capital per thousand Ringgit sale
inv_d = days to sell the inventory, rec_d = days to collect the receivables
pay_d = days to pay the payables



6-Months Historical Chart from shareinvestor.com


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1-Years Historical Chart from shareinvestor.com

5-Years Historical Chart from shareinvestor.com

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