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Saturday, December 31, 2011

KLCI Stock - BPURI / 5932 - 2011 Quarter 3

Company Info
Market Capital (Capital Size)106,647,296 (Small)
Par ValueRM 1.00

My Analysis
Forecast P/E now(0.875-0.02)/0.0926 = 9.23 (Moderate)
Target Price0.93+0.02 = 0.95 (PE 10.0, EPS 0.0926, DPS 0.02)
DecisionNot interested unless got strong buy volume and lower sell volume when stock price below 0.87
Comment
Revenue decreased 1.2% but higher than preceding year corresponding quarter 1%, eps decreased 59% and also lower than preceding year corresponding quarter 53.2%, no cash generated from operating but still got more than enough borrowings to cover all expenses, slightly better liquidity ratio at low level now, lower gearing ratio at very high level now, receivables and payables ratio still acceptable
First Support Price0.87
Second Support Price0.83
Risk RatingMODERATE

Research House
Kenanga Target Price1.5 (2011-07-28)
Wilson & York Target Price1.3 (2011-11-21)

Accounting Ratio
Return on Equity8.14%
Dividend Yield2.29%
Profit Margin1.96%
Tax Rate71.78%
Asset Turnover1.5848
Net Asset Value Per Share1.1
Net Tangible Asset per share1.1
Price/Net Tangible Asset Per Share0.8
Cash Per Share0.55
Liquidity Current Ratio1.0336
Liquidity Quick Ratio1.0131
Liquidity Cash Ratio0.0948
Gearing Debt to Equity Ratio5.5209
Gearing Debt to Asset Ratio0.8328
Working capital per thousand Ringgit sale1.7%
Days to sell the inventory4
Days to collect the receivables171
Days to pay the payables99

Technical Analysis
SMA 200.889 (Downtrend 1 day)
SMA 500.912 (Downtrend)
SMA 1000.988 (Downtrend)
SMA 2001.107 (Downtrend)
MACD-0.026611 (Uptrend 21 days)
MACD Histogram0.008891 (Uptrend 19 days)

My notes based on 2011 quarter 3 report (number in '000):-
- The improved performance of construction division was mainly attributable to progressive profit recognised from projects secured during the period, which include KLIA 2, KK Times Square and Sabah Administration Centre

- The performance of the polyol division was affected by lack of export market, higher cost of raw materials and intense competition in the local market

- The current value of contract work in progress is approximately RM2.7 billion

- Lower profit mainly due to high tax expenses

- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2011 Q3 result announced = 0.0975*0.95 = 0.0926, estimate PE on current price 0.875 = 9.23(DPS 0.02)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2011 Q2 result announced = (0.0356+0.0195)*2 = 0.1102, estimate highest/lowest PE = 10.16/7.35 (DPS 0.04)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2011 Q1 result announced = (0.028+0.0195)*2 = 0.095, estimate highest/lowest PE = 12.43/10.53 (DPS 0.04)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q4 result announced = 0.028*4*1.05 = 0.1176, estimate highest/lowest PE = 11.14/9.69 (DPS 0.04)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q3 result announced = 0.1, estimate highest/lowest PE = 16.1/11.9 (DPS 0.04)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q2 result announced = 0.0463*2 = 0.0926, estimate highest/lowest PE = 14.15/11.23 (DPS 0.04)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q1 result announced = 0.0828(10% grow from 0.0753, added adjustment from last quarter estimated), estimate highest/lowest PE = 18.12/11.59 (DPS 0.04)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2009 Q4 result announced = 0.0781(10% grow from 0.071), estimate highest/lowest PE = 16.26/9.8 (DPS 0.04)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2009 Q3 result announced = 0.078, estimate highest/lowest PE = 10.9/8.91 (DPS 0.04)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2009 Q2 result announced = 0.06, estimate highest/lowest PE = 15.17/11.08 (DPS 0.04)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2009 Q2 result announced = 0.0484, estimate highest/lowest PE = 18.39/15.08 (DPS 0.04)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2009 Q1 result announced = 0.0465, estimate highest/lowest PE = 19.78/14.19 (DPS 0.04)

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