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Tuesday, December 20, 2011

KLCI Stock - MAHSING / 8583 - 2011 Quarter 3

Company Info
Market Capital (Capital Size)1,397,545,193 (Large)
Par ValueRM 0.50

My Analysis
Forecast P/E now(1.68-0.076)/0.1896 = 8.46 (Moderate)
Target Price2.28+0.076 = 2.35 (PE 12.0, EPS 0.1896, DPS 0.076)
DecisionBUY if macd back to uptrend
Comment
Revenue increased 1.1% and was fourth consecutive quarter increasing (higher than preceding year corresponding quarter 48.4%), eps decreased 1% but higher than preceding year corresponding quarter 39.8%, no cash generated from operating after changed of assets & liabilities but cash generate from financing still more than enough to cover all expenses, stronger liquidity ratio from moderate to high level now, lower gearing ratio at high level now, all accounting ratio improved but inventory still at very high level, plastics division profit decreasing, property division revenue continue increasing
First Support Price1.68
Second Support Price1.5
Risk RatingMODERATE

Research House
Nomura Target Price3.08 (2011-02-10)
TA Target Price3.32 (2011-04-15)
UOB Target Price2.44 (2011-08-03)
Kenanga Target Price2.87 (2011-08-18)
OSK Target Price3.01 (2011-08-18)
CIMB Target Price2.64 (2011-10-06)
MIDF Target Price1.71 (2011-10-06)
RHB Target Price1.55 (2011-10-06)
Maybank Target Price1.76 (2011-11-22)
HLG Target Price2.37 (2011-12-14)

Accounting Ratio
Return on Equity15.53%
Dividend Yield4.52%
Profit Margin14.55%
Tax Rate28.97%
Asset Turnover0.5461
Net Asset Value Per Share1.21
Net Tangible Asset per share1.21
Price/Net Tangible Asset Per Share1.6
Cash Per Share0.69
Liquidity Current Ratio3.8813
Liquidity Quick Ratio1.4399
Liquidity Cash Ratio0.9454
Gearing Debt to Equity Ratio1.5562
Gearing Debt to Asset Ratio0.6052
Working capital per thousand Ringgit sale125.8%
Days to sell the inventory485
Days to collect the receivables78
Days to pay the payables172

Technical Analysis
SMA 201.816 (Downtrend 17 days)
SMA 501.897 (Downtrend)
SMA 1001.997 (Downtrend)
SMA 2002.231 (Downtrend)
MACD-0.078268 (Downtrend 20 days)
MACD Histogram-0.026698 (Downtrend 11 days)

My notes based on 2011 quarter 3 report (number in '000):-
- Unbilled locked in sales and remaining GDV is estimated at more than RM15 billion

- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2011 Q3 result announced = 0.0499*4*0.95 = 0.1896, estimate PE on current price 1.68 = 8.46(DPS 0.076)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2011 Q2 result announced = 0.0504*4 = 0.2016, estimate highest/lowest PE = 12.12/7.01 (DPS 0.076)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2011 Q1 result announced = 0.0485*4 = 0.194, estimate highest/lowest PE = 13.47/10.64 (DPS 0.076)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q4 result announced = 0.0376*4*1.1 = 0.1654, estimate highest/lowest PE = 16.05/13.2 (DPS 0.076)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q3 result announced = 0.0357*4*1.1 = 0.1571, estimate highest/lowest PE = 17.6/10.85 (DPS 0.065)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q2 result announced = 0.0355*4*1.1 = 0.1562, estimate highest/lowest PE = 12.45/10.47 (DPS 0.065)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q1 result announced = 0.034*4*1.1 = 0.1496, estimate highest/lowest PE = 12.13/9.99 (DPS 0.065)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2009 Q4 result announced = 0.0388*4 = 0.1552, estimate highest/lowest PE = 12.6/10.53 (DPS 0.065)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2009 Q3 result announced = 0.0373*4 = 0.1492, estimate highest/lowest PE = 12.73/10.72 (DPS 0.08)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2009 Q2 result announced = 0.0366*4 = 0.1464, estimate highest/lowest PE = 13.66/11.61 (DPS 0.08)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2009 Q1 result announced = 0.036*4 = 0.144, estimate highest/lowest PE = 13.68/11.39 (DPS 0.08)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2008 Q4 result announced = 0.0271*4 = 0.1084, estimate highest/lowest PE = 16.33/13.28 (DPS 0.08)

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