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Tuesday, December 6, 2011

KLCI Stock - MHB / 5186 - 2011 Quarter 6

Company Info
Market Capital (Capital Size)9,024,000,000 (Very Large)
Par ValueRM 0.50

My Analysis
Forecast P/E now(5.64-0.05)/0.21 = 26.62 (High)
Target Price3.99+0.05 = 4.04 (PE 19.0, EPS 0.21, DPS 0.05)
DecisionNot interested unless stock price got strong uptrend above 5.87
Comment
Revenue decreased 51.7% and also lower than preceding year corresponding quarter 54.7%, eps increased 1.4% but lower than preceding year corresponding quarter 13.6%, cash generated from operating is more than enough to cover all expenses, slightly stronger liquidity ratio at low level now, lower gearing ratio at above moderate level now, payables ratio got slightly high
First Support Price5.55
Second Support Price5.0
Risk RatingMODERATE

Research House
Credit Suisse Target Price7.15 (2011-01-27)
TA Target Price7.21 (2011-06-06)
UOB Target Price8.6 (2011-08-05)
MIDF Target Price6.7 (2011-08-17)
Kenanga Target Price7.9 (2011-09-28)
RHB Target Price3.93 (2011-10-24)
OSK Target Price6.6 (2011-11-08)
AMMB Target Price7.4 (2011-11-18)
ECM Target Price6.08 (2011-11-26)
Maybank Target Price8 (2011-11-26)
CIMB Target Price5.55 (2011-11-30)

Accounting Ratio
Return on Equity6.69%
Dividend Yield0.89%
Profit Margin21.67%
Tax Rate20.07%
Asset Turnover0.8159
Net Asset Value Per Share1.49
Net Tangible Asset per share1.49
Price/Net Tangible Asset Per Share4.03
Cash Per Share1.44
Liquidity Current Ratio1.5819
Liquidity Quick Ratio1.5712
Liquidity Cash Ratio1.1092
Gearing Debt to Equity Ratio0.8855
Gearing Debt to Asset Ratio0.4693
Working capital per thousand Ringgit sale33.1%
Days to sell the inventory2
Days to collect the receivables96
Days to pay the payables217

My notes based on 2011 quarter 6 report (number in '000):-
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2011 Q6 result announced = 0.05*4*1.05 = 0.21, estimate PE on current price 5.64 = 26.62(DPS 0.05)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2011 Q5 result announced = (0.08+0.05)*2 = 0.26, estimate highest/lowest PE = 26.15/19.04 (DPS 0.05)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2011 Q4 result announced = (0.08+0.06)*2 = 0.28, estimate highest/lowest PE = 31.32/22.39 (DPS 0.05)

- Yearly revenue, 2008 = 1741922, 2009 = 4021147, 2010 = 6147012
- Yearly PAT, 2008 = 194645, 2009 = 282221, 2010 = 284115

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