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Wednesday, December 28, 2011

KLCI Stock - BSTEAD / 2771 - 2011 Quarter 3

Company Info
Market Capital (Capital Size)5,443,540,869 (Very Large)
Par ValueRM 0.50

My Analysis
Forecast P/E now(5.79-0.32)/0.5401 = 10.13 (Moderate)
Target Price7.02+0.32 = 7.34 (PE 13.0, EPS 0.5401, DPS 0.32)
DecisionBUY if stock price next uptrend start above 5.5
Comment
Revenue decreased 1.6% but higher than preceding year corresponding quarter 44.6%, eps decreased 34.7% and was third consecutive quarter decreasing but still higher than preceding year corresponding quarter 30.8%, cash generated from operating not enough for financing expenses hence increased borrowings to cover other expenses and still got extra, weaker liquidity ratio at weak level now, slightly lower gearing ratio at high level now, all accounting ratio are good, CPO price in uptrend
First Support Price5.5
Second Support Price5.2
Risk RatingMODERATE

Research House
CIMB Target Price2.79 (2011-11-22)
ECM Target Price6.41 (2011-11-22)
AMMB Target Price4.3 (2011-12-19)
HLG Target Price6.5 (2011-12-19)
HwangDBS Target Price6.8 (2011-12-19)
TA Target Price6.21 (2011-12-21)

Accounting Ratio
Return on Equity12.85%
Dividend Yield5.53%
Profit Margin7.63%
Tax Rate13.64%
Asset Turnover0.6691
Net Asset Value Per Share4.63
Net Tangible Asset per share2.86
Price/Net Tangible Asset Per Share1.86
Cash Per Share0.62
Liquidity Current Ratio0.6149
Liquidity Quick Ratio0.5024
Liquidity Cash Ratio0.1095
Gearing Debt to Equity Ratio1.4952
Gearing Debt to Asset Ratio0.5667
Working capital per thousand Ringgit sale-26.5%
Days to sell the inventory31
Days to collect the receivables99
Days to pay the payables87

Technical Analysis
SMA 205.438 (Uptrend 18 days)
SMA 505.318 (Uptrend)
SMA 1005.187 (Uptrend)
SMA 2005.357 (Uptrend)
MACD0.124877 (Uptrend 8 days)
MACD Histogram0.051948 (Uptrend 53 days)

My notes based on 2011 quarter 3 report (number in '000):-
- Higher revenue and pbt than FY10Q3 due to higher sales volume for the Manufacturing & Trading Division, while the Plantation Division's revenue had also increased by 26% mainly on stronger palm product prices and consolidation of Pharmaniaga in Pharmaceutical Division

- Lower revenue and pbt in Heavy division than FY10Q3 due to the work on the second generation patrol vessels remained at the preliminary stage, higher interest expense and cost escalations in completing certain commercial shipbuilding projects

- Lower pbt than FY11Q2 due to previous quarter had included a RM94.6 million gain from the disposal of plantation assets

- Plantation Division’s pre-tax profit was better than FY11Q2 was boosted by RM14 million dividend income from Boustead REIT, while the 5% increase in FFB crop helped to cushion against a 5% decline in CPO price

- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2011 Q3 result announced = 0.1286*4*1.05 = 0.5401, estimate PE on current price 5.79 = 10.13(DPS 0.32)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2011 Q2 result announced = (0.1+0.12)*2 = 0.44, estimate highest/lowest PE = 12.11/9.48 (DPS 0.32)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2011 Q1 result announced = 0.5557, estimate highest/lowest PE = 10.94/8.53 (DPS 0.42)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q4 result announced = 0.2646*2*1.05 = 0.5557(exclude RM52 million one off gained), estimate highest/lowest PE = 10.08/8.8 (DPS 0.39)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q3 result announced = 0.1*4*1.1 = 0.44, estimate highest/lowest PE = 13.11/11.14 (DPS 0.37)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q2 result announced = 0.08*4*1.05 = 0.336(0.08 is eps exclude non-repeatable income), estimate highest/lowest PE = 17.04/11.59 (DPS 0.325)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q1 result announced = 0.4699*1.05 = 0.4934(5% increase), estimate highest/lowest PE = 8.3/6.58 (DPS 0.275)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2009 Q4 result announced = 0.4934, estimate highest/lowest PE = 7.1/6.31 (DPS 0.275)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2009 Q3 result announced = 0.1241*4 = 0.4964, estimate highest/lowest PE = 6.89/6.06 (DPS 0.25)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2009 Q2 result announced = 0.0721*4 = 0.2884, estimate highest/lowest PE = 12.17/10.92 (DPS 0.2)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2009 Q1 result announced = 0.0934*4 = 0.3736, estimate highest/lowest PE = 11.78/8.94 (DPS 0.2)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2008 Q4 result announced = 0.1699*4 = 0.6796, estimate highest/lowest PE = 5.15/3.97 (DPS 0.3)

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1 comment:

fhs said...

under value blue chip which should not miss

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