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Tuesday, December 20, 2011

KLCI Stock - ARMADA / 5210 - 2011 Quarter 3

Company Info
Market Capital (Capital Size)12,006,692,560 (Very Large)
Par ValueRM 0.20

My Analysis
Forecast P/E now4.1/0.1527 = 26.85 (Moderate)
Target Price0.1527*30.0 = 4.58 (PE 30.0, EPS 0.1527)
DecisionBUY if stock price can maintaining the MACD uptrend
Revenue increased 2.8% and also higher than preceding year corresponding quarter 22.8%, eps increased 25.8% but lower than preceding year corresponding quarter 33.3%, cash generated from operating not enough to cover financing expenses hence got generated more cash from financing activities to cover other expenses, stronger liquidity ratio from weak to low level now, lower gearing ratio from high to above moderate level now, benefit from vessel utilisation increase and strengthening of USD versus RM
First Support Price3.95
Second Support Price3.65

Research House
Kenanga Target Price3.88 (2011-07-21)
Credit Suisse Target Price4.4 (2011-09-09)
MIDF Target Price3.25 (2011-10-03)
OSK Target Price3.65 (2011-10-03)
CIMB Target Price4.61 (2011-11-21)
ECM Target Price4 (2011-11-22)
HwangDBS Target Price5 (2011-11-22)

Accounting Ratio
Return on Equity6.85%
Dividend Yield-
Profit Margin27.54%
Tax Rate14.37%
Asset Turnover0.1211
Net Asset Value Per Share1.49
Net Tangible Asset per share1.49
Price/Net Tangible Asset Per Share2.66
Cash Per Share0.36
Liquidity Current Ratio1.4674
Liquidity Quick Ratio1.4652
Liquidity Cash Ratio0.7596
Gearing Debt to Equity Ratio0.9242
Gearing Debt to Asset Ratio0.4793
Working capital per thousand Ringgit sale76.7%
Days to sell the inventory2
Days to collect the receivables416
Days to pay the payables308

Technical Analysis
SMA 203.95 (Uptrend 43 days)
SMA 503.766 (Uptrend)
SMA 1003.734 (Same)
SMA 200Not Available
MACD0.100524 (Uptrend 2 days)
MACD Histogram0.021303 (Uptrend 46 days)

My notes based on 2011 quarter 3 report (number in '000):-
- Higher revenue and pbt due to two new FPSO contracts - Apache in Australia for the Balnaves field and ONGC in India for the D1 field and improved fleet utilisation and new vessels

- Lower revenue from the T&I segment than FY11Q2 as Armada Installer entered into dry dock at Baku in Turkmenistan

- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2011 Q3 result announced = 0.0332*4*1.15 = 0.1527, estimate PE on current price 4.1 = 26.85
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2011 Q2 result announced = 0.0264*4*1.15 = 0.1214, estimate highest/lowest PE = 33.11/26.69

ARMADA latest news (English)

ARMADA latest news (Chinese)

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