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Friday, December 9, 2011

KLCI Stock - YTLPOWR / 6742 - 2012 Quarter 1

Company Info
Market Capital (Capital Size)13,550,126,176 (Very Large)
Par ValueRM 0.50

My Analysis
Forecast P/E now(1.85-0.075)/0.108 = 16.44 (High)
Target Price1.73+0.075 = 1.80 (PE 16.0, EPS 0.108, DPS 0.075)
DecisionNot interested unless stock price break 1.91
Comment
Revenue decreased 14.7% but higher than preceding year corresponding quarter 4.4%, eps decreased 45% and also lower than preceding year corresponding quarter 8.9%, cash generated from operating enough to cover all expenses, stronger liquidity ratio but still at low level now, lower gearing ratio but still at very high level now, all accounting ratio are good, mobile broadband division recorded lower loss but other segments also recorded lower profit
First Support Price1.75
Second Support Price1.6
Risk RatingMODERATE

Research House
RHB Target Price2.57 (2011-03-21)
HwangDBS Target Price2.75 (2011-03-29)
Credit Suisse Target Price1.82 (2011-03-30)
AMMB Target Price2.42 (2011-05-13)
MIDF Target Price2.8 (2011-05-27)
CIMB Target Price2.8 (2011-07-08)
HLG Target Price2.33 (2011-08-26)
ECM Target Price1.7 (2011-11-18)
Maybank Target Price2.02 (2011-11-18)

Accounting Ratio
Return on Equity15.49%
Dividend Yield4.05%
Profit Margin8.19%
Tax Rate29.43%
Asset Turnover0.4101
Net Asset Value Per Share1.16
Net Tangible Asset per share0.32
Price/Net Tangible Asset Per Share5.62
Cash Per Share1.06
Liquidity Current Ratio1.2117
Liquidity Quick Ratio1.1518
Liquidity Cash Ratio0.909
Gearing Debt to Equity Ratio3.0313
Gearing Debt to Asset Ratio0.7485
Working capital per thousand Ringgit sale12.8%
Days to sell the inventory15
Days to collect the receivables50
Days to pay the payables66

My notes based on 2012 quarter 1 report (number in '000):-
- Lower pbt than FY11Q1 principally due to a loss of RM94.9 million recorded by Mobile Broadband Network segment

- Lower pbt than FY11Q4 principally due to:
i) a one-off accounting non-cash credit adjustment of RM64.0 million in the preceding quarter relating to full year effects on application of IC 12 Service Concession Arrangements from a foreign associated company
ii) a lower volume of electricity sales recorded by the Multi Utilities Business (Merchant) segment
iii) unrealised foreign exchange losses, fair value loss on quoted investment and higher finance cost

- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2012 Q1 result announced = 0.027*4 = 0.108(exclude RM36 million minority interest), estimate PE on current price 1.85 = 16.44(DPS 0.075)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2011 Q4 result announced = 0.0275*4*1.1 = 0.121(exclude profit from minority interest and if vat 24%), estimate highest/lowest PE = 15.5/12.85 (DPS 0.075)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2011 Q2 result announced = (0.04+0.0332)*2 = 0.1464(exclude profit from minority interest), estimate highest/lowest PE = 15.54/14.52 (DPS 0.075)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2011 Q1 result announced = 0.1717*1.1 = 0.1889, estimate highest/lowest PE = 11.65/10.85 (DPS 0.15)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q4 result announced = 0.1717*1.1 = 0.1889, estimate highest/lowest PE = 13.82/11.12 (DPS 0.15)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q3 result announced = 0.0404*4 = 0.1616, estimate highest/lowest PE = 13.37/12.56 (DPS 0.15)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q2 result announced = 0.0356*4 = 0.1424, estimate highest/lowest PE = 15.1/14.04 (DPS 0.15)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q1 result announced = 0.0328*4 = 0.1312, estimate highest/lowest PE = 16.23/15.02 (DPS 0.15)
- No Estimate next 4Q eps after 2009 Q4 result announced
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2009 Q3 result announced = 0.0335*4 = 0.134, estimate highest/lowest PE = 15.45/14.48 (DPS 0.15)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2009 Q2 result announced = 0.0334*4 = 0.1336, estimate highest/lowest PE = 14.6/12.72 (DPS 0.15)

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