KLCI Stock - XINQUAN / 5155 - 2012 Quarter 1

Company Info

Market Capital (Capital Size)	218,204,300 (Small)
Par Value	USD 0.10

My Analysis

Forecast P/E now	0.71/0.4 = 1.78 (Moderate)
Target Price	0.4*4.5 = 1.80 (PE 4.5, EPS 0.4)
Decision	BUY if stock price below Group cash per share
Comment	Revenue increased 16.4% and was second consecutive quarter increasing and also higher than preceding year corresponding quarter 26.8%, eps decreased 13% but higher than preceding year corresponding quarter 31.6%, no cash generated from operating after deducted for receivables nor financing activities hence spent 12.4% of Group cash to cover other expenses, stronger liquidity ratio at strong level now, lower gearing ratio at low level now, all accounting ratio are good, all segment continuing growing
First Support Price	0.67
Second Support Price	0.6
Risk Rating	MODERATE

Research House

Mercury Target Price

1.47 (2011-11-18)

Accounting Ratio

Return on Equity	24.39%
Dividend Yield	-
Profit Margin	23.91%
Tax Rate	4.24%
Asset Turnover	1.2394
Net Asset Value Per Share	1.58
Net Tangible Asset per share	1.58
Price/Net Tangible Asset Per Share	0.62
Cash Per Share	0.75
Liquidity Current Ratio	4.5712
Liquidity Quick Ratio	4.3042
Liquidity Cash Ratio	2.4178
Gearing Debt to Equity Ratio	0.1998
Gearing Debt to Asset Ratio	0.1665
Working capital per thousand Ringgit sale	47.1%
Days to sell the inventory	18
Days to collect the receivables	91
Days to pay the payables	41

Technical Analysis

SMA 20	0.832 (Downtrend)
SMA 50	0.869 (Downtrend)
SMA 100	0.926 (Downtrend)
SMA 200	1.056 (Downtrend)
MACD Histogram	-0.019638 (Downtrend)

My notes based on 2012 quarter 1 report (number in '000):
- Higher revenue and profit than FY11Q1 mainly due to increase in sales volume of shoe sole and apparel from approximately 3.9 million pairs and 1.2 million pieces to approximately 5.8 million pairs and 1.5 million pieces respectively and increase in average selling price of shoe from RMB103.7 to RMB108.9 per pair and increase in average selling price of apparels from RMB93 to RMB102 per pieces

- Higher revenue than FY11Q4 due to an increase in the sales of shoe soles, apparels & accessories however lower pbt mainly due to the higher selling & distribution costs

- 50% tax relief until 31 Dec 2012

- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2012 Q1 result announced = 0.4(or after adjustment of issue new securities = 0.4*0.8696 = 0.3478), estimate PE on current price 0.71 = 1.78
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2011 Q4 result announced = 0.3845*1.05*0.8696 = 0.3511(adjustment of issue new securities), estimate highest/lowest PE = 2.76/2.18
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2011 Q3 result announced = 0.3154*1.1 = 0.3469, estimate highest/lowest PE = 3.32/2.31 (DPS 0.05)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2011 Q1 result announced = 0.3452*1.1 = 0.3797, estimate highest/lowest PE = 3.56/2.82 (DPS 0.05)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q4 result announced = 0.3452*1.1 = 0.3797, estimate highest/lowest PE = 4.87/3.56 (DPS 0.05)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q3 result announced = 0.095*4 = 0.38(0.095 is average of recent 2Q minus little eps due to end of tax exemption and reduction), estimate highest/lowest PE = 4.93/2.91 (DPS 0.025)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q2 result announced = 0.1584*2*1.1 = 0.3485, estimate highest/lowest PE = 3.77/3 (DPS 0.025)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q1 result announced = 0.0834*4 = 0.3336, estimate highest/lowest PE = 4.2/3.15
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2009 Q4 result announced = 0.4288, estimate highest/lowest PE = 3.59/3.03

XINQUAN latest news (English)

XINQUAN latest news (Chinese)