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Tuesday, December 6, 2011

KLCI Stock - AMWAY / 6351 - 2011 Quarter 3

Company Info
Market Capital (Capital Size)1,479,470,805 (Large)
Par ValueRM 1.00

My Analysis
Forecast P/E now(9.0-0.62)/0.5326 = 15.73 (Moderate)
Target Price9.59+0.62 = 10.21 (PE 18.0, EPS 0.5326, DPS 0.62)
DecisionBUY if stock price next uptrend start above 8.9
Comment
Revenue increased 25% and also higher than preceding year corresponding quarter 10.5%, eps increased 35.5% and also higher than preceding year corresponding quarter 19.9%, cash generated from operating is more than enough to cover all expenses, stronger liquidity ratio from low to moderate level now, lower gearing ratio at moderate level now, all accounting ratio are good, going to affect by strengthening of USD, possible of affect by weakening of consumer spending
First Support Price8.9
Second Support Price8.6
Risk RatingMODERATE

Research House
OSK Target Price9.86 (2011-08-11)
RHB Target Price10 (2011-08-16)
TA Target Price10.9 (2011-08-16)

Accounting Ratio
Return on Equity36.78%
Dividend Yield7.33%
Profit Margin16.27%
Tax Rate25.12%
Asset Turnover2.123
Net Asset Value Per Share1.41
Net Tangible Asset per share1.38
Price/Net Tangible Asset Per Share6.55
Cash Per Share1.13
Liquidity Current Ratio2.1421
Liquidity Quick Ratio1.7039
Liquidity Cash Ratio1.5971
Gearing Debt to Equity Ratio0.5007
Gearing Debt to Asset Ratio0.3336
Working capital per thousand Ringgit sale17.9%
Days to sell the inventory31
Days to collect the receivables6
Days to pay the payables66

My notes based on 2011 quarter 3 report (number in '000):-
- Higher revenue and pbt due to various sales and marketing program implemented and improved gross margin arising from the favorable foreign exchange impact

- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2011 Q3 result announced = 0.5072*1.05 = 0.5326, estimate PE on current price 9 = 15.73(DPS 0.62)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2011 Q2 result announced = 0.4988*0.95 = 0.4739, estimate highest/lowest PE = 18.23/16.33 (DPS 0.62)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2011 Q1 result announced = 0.5142*0.97 = 0.4988, estimate highest/lowest PE = 18.4/16.32 (DPS 0.66)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q4 result announced = 0.4761*1.08 = 0.5142, estimate highest/lowest PE = 17.64/14.86 (DPS 0.66)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q3 result announced = 0.3335+(0.1246*1.2) = 0.5497, estimate highest/lowest PE = 15.21/13.46 (DPS 0.64)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q2 result announced = 0.3335+(0.1246*1.2) = 0.5497, estimate highest/lowest PE = 14.04/13.43 (DPS 0.52)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q1 result announced = 0.3261+(0.099*1.1) = 0.4676(Correction to preceding Q estimated), estimate highest/lowest PE = 16.3/14.71 (DPS 0.5)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2009 Q4 result announced = 0.0996*4 = 0.3984, estimate highest/lowest PE = 17.62/16.99 (DPS 0.48)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2009 Q3 result announced = 0.1246*4 = 0.4984, estimate highest/lowest PE = 13.98/13.46 (DPS 0.48)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2009 Q2 result announced = 0.099*4 = 0.396, estimate highest/lowest PE = 17.6/16.92 (DPS 0.5)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2009 Q1 result announced = 0.118*4 = 0.472, estimate highest/lowest PE = 14.79/13.73 (DPS 0.52)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2008 Q4 result announced = 0.1332*4 = 0.5328, estimate highest/lowest PE = 13.06/11.75 (DPS 0.54)

AMWAY latest news (English)

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