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Friday, December 2, 2011

KLCI Stock - 3A / 0012 - 2011 Quarter 3

Company Info
Market Capital (Capital Size)476,256,022 (Small)
Par ValueRM 0.20

My Analysis
Forecast P/E now(1.21-0.012)/0.026 = 46.08 (High)
Target Price0.26+0.012 = 0.27 (PE 10.0, EPS 0.026, DPS 0.012)
DecisionNot interested unless stock price can sustain and uptrend above 1.27
Comment
Revenue decreased 11% and also lower than preceding year corresponding quarter 1.2%, eps decreased 44.9% and also lower than preceding year corresponding quarter 13.2%, cash generated from operating not enough to cover financing expenses hence spent 84.7% of Group cash to cover all expenses, stronger liquidity ratio from moderate to high level now, lower gearing ratio at below moderate level now, all accounting ratio are good, benefit from raw material decreased, no significant increase of inventory can indicate demand not grow yet
First Support Price1.16
Second Support Price1.07
Risk RatingMODERATE

Research House
AMMB Target Price1.83 (2011-11-17)

Accounting Ratio
Return on Equity7.19%
Dividend Yield0.99%
Profit Margin6.97%
Tax Rate48.63%
Asset Turnover0.9909
Net Asset Value Per Share0.51
Net Tangible Asset per share0.51
Price/Net Tangible Asset Per Share2.31
Cash Per Share0.05
Liquidity Current Ratio3.4814
Liquidity Quick Ratio2.448
Liquidity Cash Ratio0.469
Gearing Debt to Equity Ratio0.3482
Gearing Debt to Asset Ratio0.2582
Working capital per thousand Ringgit sale36.3%
Days to sell the inventory59
Days to collect the receivables101
Days to pay the payables21

My notes based on 2011 quarter 3 report (number in '000):-
- Lower revenue mainly due to lower demand for the Group's products

- Higher pbt as a result of lower raw material costs as well as production efficiency

- Lower pat due to higher tax

- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2011 Q3 result announced = 0.0059*4*1.1 = 0.026, estimate PE on current price 1.21 = 46.08 (DPS 0.012)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2011 Q2 result announced = 0.0107*4*0.8 = 0.0342, estimate highest/lowest PE = 39.12/30.94 (DPS 0.012)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q4 result announced = 0.0153*2 = 0.0306, estimate highest/lowest PE = 60.46/45.42 (DPS 0.01)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q3 result announced = 0.015*4 = 0.06(base on 3% roe per quarter), estimate highest/lowest PE = 30.8/23.13 (DPS 0.012)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q2 result announced = 0.0286*3 = 0.0858(0.0286 is recent 2Q cum_eps, FYQ1-11 & FYQ2-11 to double as current), estimate highest/lowest PE = 22.31/17.88 (DPS 0.016)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q1 result announced = 0.076, estimate highest/lowest PE = 26.89/20.32 (DPS 0.016)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2009 Q4 result announced = 0.076 (~30% EPS grow), estimate highest/lowest PE = 30.05/20.32 (DPS 0.016)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2009 Q3 result announced = 0.0191*4 = 0.0764, estimate highest/lowest PE = 30.68/15.63 (DPS 0.016)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2009 Q2 result announced = 0.0178*4 = 0.0712, estimate highest/lowest PE = 23.74/7.09 (DPS 0.01)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2009 Q1 result announced = 0.0069*4 = 0.0276, estimate highest/lowest PE = 21.56/11.96 (DPS 0.01)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2008 Q4 result announced = 0.0079*4 = 0.0316, estimate highest/lowest PE = 11.55/9.34 (DPS 0.01)

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2 comments:

Anonymous said...

wonderful site... but u forgot to tell people that u copied the charts from shareinvestor malaysia website... that's not very ethical

cwyeoh stock analysis said...

Thanks, i just thought to provide a convenient view to all viewer, "not very ethical" remind me actually i also violated the copyright, then i will remove all.

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