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Saturday, December 3, 2011

KLCI Stock - TGOFFS / 7228 - 2011 Quarter 3

Company Info
Market Capital (Capital Size)239,391,160 (Small)
Par ValueRM 0.50

My Analysis
Forecast P/E now0.82/0.026 = 31.54 (High)
Target Price0.026*10.0 = 0.26 (PE 10.0, EPS 0.026)
DecisionNot interested unless stock price break 0.88
Comment
Revenue decreased 35.8% and also lower than preceding year corresponding quarter 14.3%, eps decreased 106.1% and also lower than preceding year corresponding quarter 155.6%, cash generated from operating enough to cover financing activities but spent 69.2% of Group cash for investing expenses, slightly weaker liquidity ratio at low level now, higher gearing ratio at very high level now, all accounting ratio are acceptable, higher inventory can indicate amount of works is in good trend
First Support Price0.78
Second Support Price0.72
Risk RatingHIGH

Research House
TA Target Price0.72 (2011-05-20)
AMMB Target Price0.71 (2011-10-03)
OSK Target Price0.53 (2011-10-24)
Maybank Target Price0.98 (2011-12-01)

Accounting Ratio
Return on Equity0.88%
Dividend Yield-
Profit Margin0.28%
Tax Rate172.37%
Asset Turnover0.4778
Net Asset Value Per Share1.28
Net Tangible Asset per share1.25
Price/Net Tangible Asset Per Share0.68
Cash Per Share0.16
Liquidity Current Ratio1.158
Liquidity Quick Ratio1.0729
Liquidity Cash Ratio0.1478
Gearing Debt to Equity Ratio2.0355
Gearing Debt to Asset Ratio0.6666
Working capital per thousand Ringgit sale9.3%
Days to sell the inventory19
Days to collect the receivables199
Days to pay the payables139

My notes based on 2011 quarter 3 report (number in '000):-
- Lower revenue due to the slowdown in business activities for the engineering equipment division

- Lower pbt due to impairment of receivables and higher costs incurred in certain engineering equipment packages

- No estimate next 4Q eps after 2011 Q3 result announced, use ROE of 2% as eps = 0.026, estimate PE on current price 0.82 = 31.54
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2011 Q2 result announced = (0.0246+0.0106)*2 = 0.0704, estimate highest/lowest PE = 13.78/10.23
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2011 Q1 result announced = 0.004*0.9*4*1.1 = 0.0158, estimate highest/lowest PE = 70.89/53.8
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q3 result announced = 0.035*1.1*2 = 0.077(use 100% improvement forecast), estimate highest/lowest PE = 21.3/14.03
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q2 result announced = 0.0124*4*1.1*2 = 0.1091, estimate highest/lowest PE = 17.78/13.84 (DPS 0.01)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q1 result announced = 0.0119*4*1.1*2 = 0.1048, estimate highest/lowest PE = 19.18/10.11 (DPS 0.01)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2009 Q4 result announced = 0.0096*4*2 = 0.0768, estimate highest/lowest PE = 16.01/9.4 (DPS 0.01)

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