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Sunday, December 11, 2011

KLCI Stock - YTL / 4677 - 2012 Quarter 1

Company Info
Market Capital (Capital Size)13,788,376,349 (Very Large)
Par ValueRM 0.10

My Analysis
Forecast P/E now(1.42-0.04)/0.1116 = 12.37 (Moderate)
Target Price1.45+0.04 = 1.49 (PE 13.0, EPS 0.1116, DPS 0.04)
DecisionNot interested unless stock price break 1.5
Revenue decreased 16.2% but higher than preceding year corresponding quarter 3.1%, eps decreased 17% and was second consecutive quarter decreasing and also lower than preceding year corresponding quarter 9.4%, cash generated from operating is more than enough to cover all expenses, slightly weaker liquidity ratio at low level now, lower gearing ratio at very high level now, all accounting ratio are good, significant higher property development cost can indicate got new property development project, lower profit from primary profit contribution segment(utilities & cement)
First Support Price1.39
Second Support Price1.3

Accounting Ratio
Return on Equity8.26%
Dividend Yield1.41%
Profit Margin11.67%
Tax Rate26.46%
Asset Turnover0.3825
Net Asset Value Per Share1.19
Net Tangible Asset per share0.69
Price/Net Tangible Asset Per Share2.07
Cash Per Share1.5
Liquidity Current Ratio1.4381
Liquidity Quick Ratio1.2669
Liquidity Cash Ratio0.9907
Gearing Debt to Equity Ratio3.3018
Gearing Debt to Asset Ratio0.726
Working capital per thousand Ringgit sale32.0%
Days to sell the inventory53
Days to collect the receivables70
Days to pay the payables77

My notes based on 2012 quarter 1 report (number in '000):-
- Compared to FY11Q1, revenue recorded increase mainly due to better performance in multi utilities business segment whilst the decrease in profit before taxation was substantially attributable to a loss of RM94.9 million recorded by the Mobile Broadband Network segment in current financial quarter whereas in preceding year corresponding quarter, this business segment has had yet to commence operation

- Compared to FY11Q4, the decrease in revenue and profit before taxation is mainly attributable to:
i) a one-off accounting non-cash credit adjustment of RM64.0 million in the preceding quarter relating to full year effects on application of IC 12 Service Concession Arrangements from a foreign associated company
ii) a lower volume of electricity sales recorded by the Multi Utilities Business (Merchant) segment
iii) unrealised foreign exchange losses, fair value loss on quoted investment and higher finance cost

- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2012 Q1 result announced = 0.0279*4 = 0.1116, estimate PE on current price 1.42 = 12.37(DPS 0.04)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2011 Q4 result announced = 0.1172*1.05 = 0.1231, estimate highest/lowest PE = 12.27/10.15 (DPS 0.04)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2011 Q3 result announced = 0.2632*2 = 0.5264, estimate highest/lowest PE = 15.29/11.11 (DPS 0.04)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2011 Q1 result announced = 0.1304*4*1.05 = 0.5477(average eps 0.1304; 5% increase), estimate highest/lowest PE = 15.41/12.69 (DPS 0.1)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q4 result announced = 0.1162*1.15*4 = 0.5345, estimate highest/lowest PE = 15.9/13.55 (DPS 0.1)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q3 result announced = 0.1178*4 = 0.4712, estimate highest/lowest PE = 15.93/14.85 (DPS 0.075)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q2 result announced = 0.1178*4 = 0.4712, estimate highest/lowest PE = 16.16/14.44 (DPS 0.075)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q1 result announced = 0.1162*4 = 0.4648, estimate highest/lowest PE = 16.13/15.01 (DPS 0.075)

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