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Thursday, December 15, 2011

KLCI Stock - AFFIN / 5185 - 2011 Quarter 3

Company Info
Market Capital (Capital Size)4,289,432,563 (Large)
Par ValueRM 1.00

My Analysis
Forecast P/E now(2.87-0.12)/0.3546 = 7.76 (Moderate)
Target Price4.26+0.12 = 4.38 (PE 12.0, EPS 0.3546, DPS 0.12)
DecisionBUY if stock price can sustain above 2.8
Revenue increased 5.8% and is continuous increasing since FY09Q2(higher than preceding year corresponding quarter 13.8%), eps increased 0.8% and was second consecutive quarter increasing and also higher than preceding year corresponding quarter 17.5%, no cash generated from operating hence spent 4.4% of Group cash to cover all expenses, all division growing
First Support Price2.8
Second Support Price2.7

Research House
CIMB Target Price3.4 (2011-08-16)
HLG Target Price2.62 (2011-12-02)
RHB Target Price2.05 (2011-12-02)

Accounting Ratio
Return on Equity9.15%
Dividend Yield4.18%
Profit Margin30.96%
Tax Rate35.80%
Asset Turnover0.0503
Net Asset Value Per Share3.74
Net Tangible Asset per share3.06
Price/Net Tangible Asset Per Share0.95
Cash Per Share6.51
Liquidity Current Ratio1.1156
Liquidity Quick Ratio0.889
Liquidity Cash Ratio0.2209
Gearing Debt to Equity Ratio8.1198
Gearing Debt to Asset Ratio0.8903
Working capital per thousand Ringgit sale198.6%
Days to sell the inventory5518
Days to collect the receivables4169
Days to pay the payables24337

Technical Analysis
SMA 202.821 (Uptrend)
SMA 502.735 (Uptrend)
SMA 1002.801 (Downtrend)
SMA 2003.044 (Downtrend)
MACD Histogram0.013792 (Downtrend)

My notes based on 2011 quarter 3 report (number in '000):-
- The improved performance than FY10Q3 was mainly due to write-back of allowance for loan impairment of RM24.2 million as compared to a charge of RM61.9 million, higher net interest income and higher islamic income, a non-recurring gain of RM8 million on dilution of interest in associate in previous year, higher pretax profit of brokerage income and pretax profit of RM4.3 million as compared to a pretax loss of RM5.7 million from life insurance

- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2011 Q3 result announced = 0.3377*1.05 = 0.3546, estimate PE on current price 2.87 = 7.76 (DPS 0.12)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2011 Q2 result announced = (0.071+0.0898)*2*1.05 = 0.3377, estimate highest/lowest PE = 9.21/6.4 (DPS 0.09)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2011 Q1 result announced = (0.071+0.077)*2 = 0.296, estimate highest/lowest PE = 11.76/9.8 (DPS 0.09)

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