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Saturday, December 31, 2011

KLCI Stock - HSL / 6238 - 2011 Quarter 3

Company Info
Market Capital (Capital Size)769,132,320 (Medium)
Par ValueRM 0.20

My Analysis
Forecast P/E now(1.32-0.024)/0.1636 = 7.92 (Moderate)
Target Price1.96+0.024 = 1.99 (PE 12.0, EPS 0.1636, DPS 0.024)
DecisionBUY if stock price sustain and uptrend start above 1.3
Comment
Revenue increased 1% and was second consecutive quarter increasing and also higher than preceding year corresponding quarter 12%, eps increased 8.2% and was second consecutive quarter increasing and also higher than preceding year corresponding quarter 10.5%, cash generated from operating is more than enough to cover all expenses, stronger liquidity ratio at low level now, lower gearing ratio from above moderate to moderate level now, receivables and payables ratio around 6 months still acceptable, no significant increase in inventory or property develpment cost
First Support Price1.3
Second Support Price1.2
Risk RatingMODERATE

Research House
RHB Target Price1.77 (2011-10-03)
MIDF Target Price1.5 (2011-11-01)
OSK Target Price1.61 (2011-11-01)
AMMB Target Price2.3 (2011-11-22)
HLG Target Price2.09 (2011-11-23)
Maybank Target Price2.1 (2011-11-23)

Accounting Ratio
Return on Equity21.94%
Dividend Yield1.82%
Profit Margin20.05%
Tax Rate25.19%
Asset Turnover0.8755
Net Asset Value Per Share0.71
Net Tangible Asset per share0.71
Price/Net Tangible Asset Per Share1.77
Cash Per Share0.26
Liquidity Current Ratio1.8511
Liquidity Quick Ratio1.6952
Liquidity Cash Ratio0.57
Gearing Debt to Equity Ratio0.68
Gearing Debt to Asset Ratio0.4046
Working capital per thousand Ringgit sale37.0%
Days to sell the inventory30
Days to collect the receivables179
Days to pay the payables189

Technical Analysis
SMA 201.305 (Uptrend 10 days)
SMA 501.307 (Downtrend)
SMA 1001.335 (Downtrend)
SMA 2001.498 (Downtrend)
MACD-0.00939 (Uptrend 23 days)
MACD Histogram0.006890 (Uptrend 21 days)

My notes based on 2011 quarter 3 report (number in '000):-
- Higher revenue and pbt mainly due to increased activities in construction segment

- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2011 Q3 result announced = 0.0409*4 = 0.1636, estimate PE on current price 1.32 = 7.92(DPS 0.026)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2011 Q2 result announced = (0.0378+0.0319)*2*1.05 = 0.1464, estimate highest/lowest PE = 10.15/8.17 (DPS 0.024)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2011 Q1 result announced = 0.1533*0.97 = 0.1487, estimate highest/lowest PE = 11.73/8.57 (DPS 0.026)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q3 result announced = 0.0697*2*1.1 = 0.1533, estimate highest/lowest PE = 12.49/11.05 (DPS 0.026)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q2 result announced = 0.0574*2*1.1 = 0.1263, estimate highest/lowest PE = 15.08/11.99 (DPS 0.026)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q1 result announced = 0.1025*1.1 = 0.1128, estimate highest/lowest PE = 14.95/11.49 (DPS 0.024)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2009 Q4 result announced = 0.1025*1.1 = 0.1128, estimate highest/lowest PE = 13.88/11.05 (DPS 0.024)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2009 Q3 result announced = 0.0281*4 = 0.1124, estimate highest/lowest PE = 11.96/8.75 (DPS 0.016)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2009 Q2 result announced = 0.0233*4 = 0.0932, estimate highest/lowest PE = 13.13/9.7 (DPS 0.016)

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