KLCI Stock - TCHONG / 4405 - 2011 Quarter 3

Company Info

Market Capital (Capital Size)	2,822,400,000 (Large)
Par Value	RM 0.50

My Analysis

Forecast P/E now	(4.2-0.12)/0.301 = 13.55 (Moderate)
Target Price	4.21+0.12 = 4.33 (PE 14.0, EPS 0.301, DPS 0.12)
Decision	Not interested unless stock price break resistance 4.5
Comment	Revenue decreased 4% and was second consecutive quarter decreasing but still higher than preceding year corresponding quarter 3.9%, eps decreased 3.4% and was second consecutive quarter decreasing but still higher than preceding year corresponding quarter 10.6%, cash generated from operating is more than enough to cover all expenses, stronger liquidity ratio at moderate level now, lower gearing ratio at moderate level now, all accounting ratio are good, higher inventory can indicate better demand in coming quarter
First Support Price	4.2
Second Support Price	4.0
Risk Rating	MODERATE

Research House

Kenanga Target Price	4.8 (2011-05-19)
CIMB Target Price	6.55 (2011-07-19)
MIDF Target Price	4.94 (2011-09-09)
AMMB Target Price	4.1 (2011-09-22)
OSK Target Price	4.27 (2011-10-12)
RHB Target Price	4.5 (2011-10-19)
Maybank Target Price	4 (2011-11-18)

Accounting Ratio

Return on Equity	13.27%
Dividend Yield	2.86%
Profit Margin	8.19%
Tax Rate	26.44%
Asset Turnover	1.3492
Net Asset Value Per Share	2.77
Net Tangible Asset per share	2.75
Price/Net Tangible Asset Per Share	1.61
Cash Per Share	0.62
Liquidity Current Ratio	2.6015
Liquidity Quick Ratio	1.2271
Liquidity Cash Ratio	0.6019
Gearing Debt to Equity Ratio	0.5584
Gearing Debt to Asset Ratio	0.3573
Working capital per thousand Ringgit sale	28.3%
Days to sell the inventory	97
Days to collect the receivables	40
Days to pay the payables	36

My notes based on 2011 Quarter 3 report (number in '000):-
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2011 Q3 result announced = 0.0836*4*0.9 = 0.301, estimate PE on current price 4.2 = 13.55(DPS 0.12)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2011 Q1 result announced = 0.3664, estimate highest/lowest PE = 13.54/11.24 (DPS 0.12)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q3 result announced = 0.35, estimate highest/lowest PE = 13.8/11.94 (DPS 0.12)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q2 result announced = 0.0983*4 = 0.3932, estimate highest/lowest PE = 12.03/1 (DPS 0.12)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q1 result announced = 0.0991*4 = 0.3964, estimate highest/lowest PE = 12.92/9.51 (DPS 0.11)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2009 Q4 result announced = 0.0639*4 = 0.2556, estimate highest/lowest PE = 19.91/10.92 (DPS 0.11)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2009 Q3 result announced = 0.0527*4 = 0.2108, estimate highest/lowest PE = 16.65/10.44 (DPS 0.1)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2009 Q2 result announced = 0.0528*4 = 0.2112, estimate highest/lowest PE = 12.31/8.19 (DPS 0.1)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2009 Q1 result announced = 0.0626*4 = 0.2504, estimate highest/lowest PE = 7.35/5.39 (DPS 0.1)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2008 Q4 result announced = 0.0425*4 = 0.17, estimate highest/lowest PE = 9.12/6.12 (DPS 0.1)

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