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Wednesday, January 11, 2012

KLCI Stock - NOTION / 0083 - 2011 Quarter 4


Company Info
Market Capital (Capital Size)264,299,956 (Small)
Par ValueRM 0.50

My Analysis
Forecast P/E now(1.71-0.03)/0.1017 = 16.52 (High)
Target Price1.02+0.03 = 1.05 (PE 10.0, EPS 0.1017, DPS 0.03)
DecisionNot interested unless stock price below SMA20 and sell volume is low compare to buy
Comment
Revenue increased 1.8% and was second consecutive quarter increasing and also higher than preceding year corresponding quarter 20.2%, eps increased 23.3% and also higher than preceding year corresponding quarter 43.2%, cash generated from operating enough to cover financing repayment but cash generated from financing not enough to cover investing expenses hence spent 30.6% of Group cash, weaker liquidity at moderate level now, slightly higher gearing ratio at moderate level now, all accounting ratio are good, affecting by Thailand flood
First Support Price1.6
Second Support Price1.5
Risk RatingMODERATE

Research House
HwangDBS Target Price2.5 (2011-01-24)
ECM Target Price2.43 (2011-08-15)
OSK Target Price1.71 (2011-09-27)
HLG Target Price2.58 (2011-11-24)
Maybank Target Price1.5 (2011-11-24)
RHB Target Price1.21 (2012-01-04)

Accounting Ratio 
Return on Equity17.38%
Dividend Yield1.75%
Profit Margin23.04%
Tax Rate12.95%
Asset Turnover0.5743
Net Asset Value Per Share1.74
Net Tangible Asset per share1.74
Price/Net Tangible Asset Per Share0.88
Cash Per Share0.16
Liquidity Current Ratio2.1578
Liquidity Quick Ratio1.519
Liquidity Cash Ratio0.354
Gearing Debt to Equity Ratio0.5316
Gearing Debt to Asset Ratio0.3461
Working capital per thousand Ringgit sale33.6%
Days to sell the inventory83
Days to collect the receivables107
Days to pay the payables61

Technical Analysis 
SMA 201.641 (Uptrend 11 days)
SMA 501.609 (Uptrend)
SMA 1001.646 (Downtrend)
SMA 2001.87 (Downtrend)
MACD0.025046 (Uptrend 12 days)
MACD Histogram0.035147 (Uptrend 62 days)

My notes based on 2011 quarter 4 report (number in '000):-
- In Q4FY2011, HDD parts revenue recorded RM20.8 million (Q3FY2011 : RM21.7 million), camera parts recorded RM30.9 million (Q3FY2011 : RM29.2 million) whilst the industrial/automotive revenue was at RM10.2 million (Q3FY2011 : RM9.9 million). The product mix for Q4FY2011 was HDD : Camera : Industrial/Automotive of 34% : 50% : 16% compared to previous quarter’s mix of 36% : 48% : 16%

- Q1 FY2012 will see reduction of revenue of up to 40% against normal quarter and will most probably be loss making due to the reduced revenue and provisioning for the losses sustained during the flood in Notion Thailand

- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2011 Q4 result announced = (0.3033-0.1)*0.5 = 0.1017, estimate PE on current price 1.71 = 16.52(DPS 0.03)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2011 Q3 result announced = 0.24*0.9 = 0.216, estimate highest/lowest PE = 8.98/6.2 (DPS 0.06)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2011 Q2 result announced = 0.24, estimate highest/lowest PE = 9.13/7.04 (DPS 0.06)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2011 Q1 result announced = 0.06*4 = 0.24, estimate highest/lowest PE = 9.6/6.81 (DPS 0.045)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q4 result announced = 0.0523*4*0.9 = 0.1883, estimate highest/lowest PE = 11.44/8.2 (DPS 0.045)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q3 result announced = 0.0192*3+0.0806 = 0.1382(It may take 3Q to apply corrective measures to control costs, minimise rejects and maximise its production capacity), estimate highest/lowest PE = 15.16/10.67 (DPS 0.025)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q2 result announced = 0.3788 (0.1804*2 = 0.3608, 5% grow from 0.3608), estimate highest/lowest PE = 8.65/5.24 (DPS 0.025)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q1 result announced = 0.3674, estimate highest/lowest PE = 9.44/7.57 (DPS 0.03)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2009 Q4 result announced = 0.0185*4 = 0.074, estimate highest/lowest PE = 11.62/9.95 (DPS 0.03)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2009 Q3 result announced = 0.0158*4 = 0.0632, estimate highest/lowest PE = 8.39/5.49 (DPS 0.01)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2009 Q2 result announced = 0.0065*4 = 0.026, estimate highest/lowest PE = 13.46/9.23 (DPS 0.01)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2009 Q1 result announced = 0.0103*4 = 0.0412, estimate highest/lowest PE = 6.8/3.64 (DPS 0.01)

NOTION latest news (English)

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1 comment:

Jo J.Boothe said...

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