KLCI Stock - PERISAI / 0047 - 2011 Quarter 3

Company Info

Market Capital (Capital Size)	655,867,058 (Medium)
Par Value	RM 0.10

My Analysis

Forecast P/E now	0.77/0.0483 = 15.94 (High)
Target Price	0.0483*15.0 = 0.72 (PE 15.0, EPS 0.0483)
Decision	Not interested unless stock price below SMA20
Comment	Revenue increased 21% and also higher than preceding year corresponding quarter 15.6%, eps decreased 39.1% and also lower than preceding year corresponding quarter 153.8%, cash generated from operating after deduct for receivables not enough to cover financing expenses hence spent 28% of Group cash to cover, largely weaker liquidity ratio from low to weak level now, higher gearing ratio from moderate to high level now, receivables and payables ratio increased to very high level now, benefit from acquired Intan Group
First Support Price	0.73
Second Support Price	0.68
Risk Rating	MODERATE

Research House

RHB Target Price	1.43 (2011-03-31)
CIMB Target Price	1.45 (2011-11-08)
TA Target Price	1.09 (2011-11-24)

Accounting Ratio

Return on Equity	5.75%
Dividend Yield	-
Profit Margin	-17.16%
Tax Rate	-
Asset Turnover	0.1014
Net Asset Value Per Share	0.45
Net Tangible Asset per share	0.28
Price/Net Tangible Asset Per Share	2.23
Cash Per Share	0.03
Liquidity Current Ratio	0.3987
Liquidity Quick Ratio	0.3987
Liquidity Cash Ratio	0.1034
Gearing Debt to Equity Ratio	1.2079
Gearing Debt to Asset Ratio	0.5103
Working capital per thousand Ringgit sale	-163.5%
Days to sell the inventory	-
Days to collect the receivables	293
Days to pay the payables	789

Technical Analysis

SMA 20	0.722 (Uptrend 16 days)
SMA 50	0.678 (Uptrend)
SMA 100	0.642 (Uptrend)
SMA 200	0.714 (Same)
MACD	0.035657 (Uptrend 29 days)
MACD Histogram	0.011267 (Uptrend 60 days)

My notes based on 2011 quarter 3 report (number in '000):-
- Higher revenue due to contribution of revenue generated by the recent 51% acquisition of the issued and paid up share capital of the Intan Group

- Loss due to impairment of two (2) cold-stacked vessels ie a work boat vessel and a DP1 work boat vessel amounting to RM18.57 million

- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2011 Q3 result announced = 0.0115*4*1.05 = 0.0483, estimate PE on current price 0.77 = 15.94
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2011 Q2 result announced = 0.0432*0.98 = 0.0423, estimate highest/lowest PE = 17.02/10.76
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2011 Q1 result announced = 0.0108*4 = 0.0432, estimate highest/lowest PE = 19.44/13.66
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q3 result announced = 0.008*4*0.9 = 0.0288 (10% drop), estimate highest/lowest PE = 23.61/17.19
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q2 result announced = 0.0087*4*0.9 = 0.0313 (10% drop), estimate highest/lowest PE = 19.49/15.5
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q1 result announced = 0.0093*4*0.9 = 0.0335 (10% drop), estimate highest/lowest PE = 17.76/14.63
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2009 Q4 result announced = 0.0589*0.85 = 0.0501, estimate highest/lowest PE = 13.77/8.38
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2009 Q3 result announced = 0.0125*4 = 0.05, estimate highest/lowest PE = 12/9.4

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